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Testing external habits in an asset pricing model

Author

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  • Melisso Boschi

    (Senate of the Republic of Italy)

  • Stefano d'Addona

    (University of Rome 3)

  • Aditya Goenka

    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

A class of asset pricing models with external habit formation imply a nonlinear relationship between the counter-cyclical equity premium and the surplus consumption over the business cycle. The effect of a shock to surplus consumption on the equity premium will be asymmetric in a boom versus a recession. We test this using a novel approach to the estimation of a time-varying VAR model of the U.S. postwar economy where parameters are conditional on Markov-switching regimes associated to the business cycle phases. We estimate the regime-dependent impulse response functions and show that the equity premium increases following a negative shock to the surplus consumption either in boom or in recession. The response in recession is significantly larger than in boom. These results provide evidence in favor of the external habit formation hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Melisso Boschi & Stefano d'Addona & Aditya Goenka, 2021. "Testing external habits in an asset pricing model," Discussion Papers 21-11, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:21-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    1. Melisso Boschi & Stefano d'Addona, 2019. "The Stability of Tax Elasticities over the Business Cycle in European Countries," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 175-210, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Habit formation; Equity premium; Business cycle; Markov-switching models; Time-varying VAR; Regime-dependent impulse response functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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