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Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?

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  • Michael T. Kiley

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

Consumption growth is predictable, a basic violation of the permanent-income hypothesis. This paper examines three possible explanations: rule-of-thumb behavior, in which households allow consumption to track per period income flows rather than permanent income; habit persistence; and nonseparability in preferences over consumption and leisure. The results illustrate that weak instruments make the results highly sensitive to some arbitrary choices common in the literature. Using a technique that is robust to instrument choice, the analysis shows support for habit persistence and rule-of-thumb behavior and little support for nonseparability between consumption and leisure.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Kiley, 2010. "Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 679-683, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:92:y:2010:i:3:p:679-683
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2011. "Trend growth and the dynamic effects of government spending," Kiel Working Papers 1678, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. G. Everaert & L. Pozzi & -, 2010. "The Stickiness of Aggregate Consumption Growth in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/654, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado & Jose Maria Casado & Jose Maria Labeaga, 2016. "Envy and Habits: Panel Data Estimates of Interdependent Preferences," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 443-469, August.
    4. Kilponen Juha, 2012. "Consumption, Leisure and Borrowing Constraints," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, May.
    5. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik, 2017. "Estimating excess sensitivity and habit persistence in consumption using Greenbook forecast as an instrument," MPRA Paper 79748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gerdie Everaert & Lorenzo Pozzi & Ruben Schoonackers, 2016. "On The Stability Of The Excess Sensitivity Of Aggregate Consumption Growth In The Us," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 16/917, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Lecznar, Jonathan & Lubik, Thomas A., 2017. "Real Rates and Consumption Smoothing in a Low Interest Rate Environment: The Case of Japan," Working Paper 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    8. Bamikole, Oluwafemi, 2013. "The Habit Persistence Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Jamaica," MPRA Paper 57077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    10. Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte & Rochelle M. Edge, 2008. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic," 2008 Meeting Papers 990, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Yvonne Adema & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2012. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and Private Savings in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-144/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2014. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 241-256.
    14. Hess Chung & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) model of the U.S. economy: 2010 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    16. Tobias Cwik, 2012. "Fiscal consolidation using the example of Germany," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-80, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    18. Buffie, Edward F., 2013. "The Taylor principle fights back, Part I," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2771-2795.
    19. Edge, Rochelle M. & Kiley, Michael T. & Laforte, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2512-2535, August.
    20. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:9:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS

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