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Proprietary Income, Entrepreneurial Risk, and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns

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  • Mathias Hoffmann

Abstract

Small businesses tend to be owned by wealthy households. Such entrepreneur households also own a large share of U.S. stock market wealth. Fluctuations in entrepreneurs’ hunger for risk could therefore help explain time variation in the equity premium. The paper suggests an entrepreneurial distress factor that is based on a cointegrating relationship between consumption and income from proprietary and non-proprietary wealth. I call this factor the cpy residual. It reflects cyclical fluctuations in proprietary income, is highly correlated with cross-sectional measures of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial risk and has considerable forecasting power for U.S. stock returns. In line with the theoretical mechanism, the correlation between cpy and the stock market has been declining since the beginning of the 1980s as stock market participation has widened and as entrepreneurial risk has become more easily diversifiable in the wake of U.S. state-level bank deregulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Hoffmann, 2006. "Proprietary Income, Entrepreneurial Risk, and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 1712, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1712
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Nitschka, 2010. "Idiosyncratic consumption risk and predictability of the carry trade premium: Euro-Area evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 24(1), pages 49-65, March.
    2. Auer Benjamin R., 2012. "Lassen sich CAPM, HCAPM und CCAPM durch konsumbasierte zeitvariable Parameterspezifikation rehabilitieren? / Can Time-varying Parameter Specification Based on Consumption Variables Rehabilitate CAPM, ," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(5), pages 518-544, October.
    3. Mathias Hoffmann & Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Securitization of Mortgage Debt, Asset Prices and International Risk Sharing," IEW - Working Papers 376, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    4. Britta Hamburg & Mathias Hoffmann & Joachim Keller, 2008. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 451-476, June.
    5. Nitschka, Thomas, 2010. "Cashflow news, the value premium and an asset pricing view on European stock market integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1406-1423, November.
    6. Koch, Cathérine Tahmee, 2014. "Risky adjustments or adjustments to risks: Decomposing bank leverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 242-254.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-insurable background risk; entrepreneurial income; equity risk premium; long-horizon predictability;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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