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150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?

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  • Stuermer, Martin

Abstract

My paper is the first to provide long-run evidence on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks on mineral commodity prices. I assemble and analyze a new data set of prices and production levels of copper, lead, tin, zinc, and crude oil from 1840 to 2010. Price fluctuations are primarily driven by demand rather than supply shocks. Demand shocks affect the price persistently for up to 15 years, whereas the effect of supply shocks persists for a maximum of 5 years. My paper shows that price surges caused by rapid industrialization are a recurrent phenomenon throughout history. Mineral commodity prices return to their declining or stable trends in the long run.

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  • Stuermer, Martin, 2013. "150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?," MPRA Paper 51859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51859
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jacks, David S. & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "What drives commodity price booms and busts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Stuermer, Martin, 2017. "Industrialization and the demand for mineral commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 16-27.
    4. Fabian Knorre & Martin Wagner & Maximilian Grupe, 2021. "Monitoring Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions: Theory and Application to the Environmental Kuznets Curves for Carbon and Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, March.
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    6. Friedrich -W. Wellmer & Roland W. Scholz, 2017. "Peak minerals: What can we learn from the history of mineral economics and the cases of gold and phosphorus?," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(2), pages 73-93, July.
    7. Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer & Roland W. Scholz, 2018. "What Is the Optimal and Sustainable Lifetime of a Mine?," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, February.
    8. Jacks, David & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020," MPRA Paper 104710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Caldara, Dario & Cavallo, Michele & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2019. "Oil price elasticities and oil price fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-20.
    10. Baffes,John & Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2018. "The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8495, The World Bank.
    11. Dobra, John & Dobra, Matt & Ouedraogo, Abdoulaye, 2018. "Does mineral development provide a basis for sustainable economic development?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-76.
    12. Tapia, Jose, 2015. "Profits encourage investment, investment dampens profits, government spending does not prime the pump — A DAG investigation of business-cycle dynamics," MPRA Paper 64698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jaimes, Richard & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2020. "Resource-richness and economic growth in contemporary U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Wagner, Martin & Grabarczyk, Peter & Hong, Seung Hyun, 2020. "Fully modified OLS estimation and inference for seemingly unrelated cointegrating polynomial regressions and the environmental Kuznets curve for carbon dioxide emissions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 216-255.
    15. Zhao, Yiran & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Haizhong & Xi, Xian & Sun, Qingru & Jiang, Meihui, 2020. "The effect of the mined cobalt trade dependence Network's structure on trade price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
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    18. Fritz, Benedikt & Manduca, Robert, 2021. "The Economic Complexity of US Metropolitan Areas," SocArXiv 2gw9c, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mineral Commodity Markets; Metals; Oil; Prices; Non-renewable resources; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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