IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfstp/v55y2008i4p541-565.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?

Author

Listed:
  • John T Cuddington
  • Daniel Jerrett

Abstract

To borrow a phrase once used about business cycles, it can be said that “the study of super cycles necessarily begins with the measurement of super cycles” (adapted from Baxter and King, 1999). Are metal prices currently in the early phase of such a “super cycle”? Many market observers believe the answer is yes. Academics, on the other hand, are generally skeptical about the presence of long cycles. This paper searches for evidence of super cycles in metal prices by using band-pass filters to extract particular cyclical components from time series data. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that there have been three super cycles in the past 150 years or so, and that we are currently in the early phase of a fourth super cycle. Most analysts attribute the latter primarily to Chinese urbanization and industrialization. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 541–565. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.19; published online 19 August 2008

Suggested Citation

  • John T Cuddington & Daniel Jerrett, 2008. "Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 541-565, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:4:p:541-565
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v55/n4/pdf/imfsp200819a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v55/n4/full/imfsp200819a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:4:p:541-565. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.