IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/16790.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Historical Oil Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • James D. Hamilton

Abstract

This paper surveys the history of the oil industry with a particular focus on the events associated with significant changes in the price of oil. Although oil was used much differently and was substantially less important economically in the nineteenth century than it is today, there are interesting parallels between events in that era and more recent developments. Key post-World-War-II oil shocks reviewed include the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, the Iran-Iraq War initiated in 1980, the first Persian Gulf War in 1990-91, and the oil price spike of 2007-2008. Other more minor disturbances are also discussed, as are the economic downturns that followed each of the major postwar oil shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16790
    Note: EEE EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16790.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph H. Davis & Christopher Hanes & Paul W. Rhode, 2009. "Harvests and Business Cycles in Nineteenth-Century America," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1675-1727.
    2. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 97-131, June.
    4. Afees A. Salisu & Umar B. Ndako & Idris Adediran, 2018. "Forecasting GDP of OPEC: The role of oil price," Working Papers 044, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    5. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
    6. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.
    7. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    8. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    9. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    10. Bilgili, Faik & Mugaloglu, Erhan & Koçak, Emrah, 2018. "The impact of oil prices on CO2 emissions in China: A Wavelet coherence approach," MPRA Paper 90170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nowak, Sylwia & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "How does public information affect the frequency of trading in airline stocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-38.
    12. Francçois Lescaroux, 2011. "The Oil Price-Microeconomy Relationship is Alive and Well," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
    13. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil under economic and statistical constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-608.
    14. Awerbuch, Shimon & Sauter, Raphael, 2006. "Exploiting the oil-GDP effect to support renewables deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2805-2819, November.
    15. Hansen, James & Gross, Isaac, 2018. "Commodity price volatility with endogenous natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 157-180.
    16. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    17. Mohamed Amine BOUTABA, 2009. "Does Carbon Affect European Oil Companies' Equity Values?," EcoMod2009 21500018, EcoMod.
    18. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    19. Gerard H. Kuper & Daan P. van Soest, 2006. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Energy Use?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 55-78.
    20. Naoyuki Yoshino & Victoriia Alekhina, 2016. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on an energy-exporting economy: Evidence from Russia," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 2(4), pages 156-166.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16790. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.