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Impact of oil price fluctuations on an energy-exporting economy: Evidence from Russia

Author

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  • Naoyuki Yoshino

    (Dean, Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo, Japan)

  • Victoriia Alekhina

    (Master Candidate, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan)

Abstract

The oil prices have been falling recently and reached the record low level. This paper assesses the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, and consumer price index inflation rate, in Russia. Russia is selected for this analysis because it is one of the world’s largest oil exporters and oil revenue accounts for a significant portion of the country’s government budget. The main objective of this study is to see and compare the response of the two macro-variables of Russia during the high oil price era with the low oil price era. The results obtained suggest that the impact of crude oil price movements on Russia’s GDP growth rate in low oil prices era is much higher than in high oil price era. On the other hand, the impact of crude oil price movements on the consumer price index inflation was found to be milder in low oil price era. These results are obtained by examining the impact of oil price fluctuations on supply and demand side of the Russia`s economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Naoyuki Yoshino & Victoriia Alekhina, 2016. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on an energy-exporting economy: Evidence from Russia," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 2(4), pages 156-166.
    • Handle: RePEc:apb:jabsss:2016:p:156-166
    DOI: 10.20474/jabs-2.4.2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Victoriia Alekhina & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2018. "Impact of World Oil Prices on an Energy Exporting Economy Including Monetary Policy," ADBI Working Papers 828, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Svetlana Vladislavlevna Lobova & Aleksei Valentinovich Bogoviz & Yulia Vyacheslavovna Ragulina & Alexander Nikolaevich Alekseev, 2019. "The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia: Analyzing Energy Efficiency Policies at the Federal Level," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 205-211.
    3. Victoriia Alekhina & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2019. "Exogeneity of world oil prices to the Russian Federation’s economy and monetary policy," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(4), pages 531-555, December.
    4. Vicente E. Montano & Rosalia T. Gabronino & Restie E. Torres, 2019. "The curious relationship between agricultural and energy price index: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis approach," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 5(3), pages 161-177.
    5. Naoyuki Yoshino & Victoriia Alekhina, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of Global Oil Price Determinants at the Disaggregated Level Over the Last Two Decades," ADBI Working Papers 982, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Budhi Refa Anjani & Imam Baihaqi, 2018. "Comparative analysis of financial Production Sharing Contract (PSC) cost recovery with PSC gross split: Case study in one of the contractor SKK Migas," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 4(2), pages 65-80.
    7. Ayaz Zeynalov & Kristina Tiron, 2022. "Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks in Russia," Papers 2211.04954, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.

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