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Exogeneity of world oil prices to the Russian Federation’s economy and monetary policy

Author

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  • Victoriia Alekhina

    (Keio University
    The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ))

  • Naoyuki Yoshino

    (Keio University
    Asian Development Bank Institute (ABDI))

Abstract

This research investigates the interrelationship between the Russian Federation’s main macroeconomic indicators, monetary policy and world oil prices using a vector autoregressive approach and monthly time-series data from January 1993 to December 2016. We selected the Russian Federation for this analysis because it is one of the largest oil exporting countries that is not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its oil revenues account for a significant proportion of the country’s total export and budget revenues. We assume that oil prices are exogenously given to this country, despite being a large oil-exporter, and explain the oil price transition mechanisms to the Russian Federation’s economy from the export side and through the fiscal channel taking into account the monetary policy factor. The results suggest that the impact of the oil price fluctuations on the country’s gross domestic product, consumer price index inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate was more significant between 2000 and 2016 than between 1993 and 1999. To estimate the monetary policy rule for the Russian Federation, we test the modified Taylor equation and associated Taylor rule, including the oil price gap, since the latter may have a significant impact on the key policy rate. The evidence suggests that the Taylor rule describes the post-financial crisis monetary policy of the Russian Federation relatively well.

Suggested Citation

  • Victoriia Alekhina & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2019. "Exogeneity of world oil prices to the Russian Federation’s economy and monetary policy," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(4), pages 531-555, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:9:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s40822-018-0115-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s40822-018-0115-3
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    Cited by:

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    3. Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Do, Manh Hung, 2021. "Impact of economic sanctions and counter-sanctions on the Russian Federation’s trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 267-278.
    4. Omar Chafik, 2023. "Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Countries with Fixed Exchange Rate and Open Capital Account: Expectations Matter," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 1-22, March.
    5. Ayaz Zeynalov & Kristina Tiron, 2022. "Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks in Russia," Papers 2211.04954, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    6. Sohag, Kazi & Hassan, M. Kabir & Kalina, Irina & Mariev, Oleg, 2023. "The relative response of Russian National Wealth Fund to oil demand, supply and risk shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Hasan Güngör, 2021. "Co-movement of commodity price indexes and energy price index: a wavelet coherence approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Sohag, Kazi & Sokhanvar, Amin & Belyaeva, Zhanna & Mirnezami, Seyed Reza, 2022. "Hydrocarbon prices shocks, fiscal stability and consolidation: Evidence from Russian Federation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through & management of inflation expectations in a small open inflation targeting economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 178-188.
    10. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price volatility and equity return predictability: A comparative out-of-sample study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Energy exporters; Macroeconomy; VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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