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Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements

Author

Listed:
  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
  • Naoyuki Yoshino
  • Majid Mohammadi Hossein Abadi
  • Rosa Farboudmanesh

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and consumer price index inflation rate, in the developed economies of the United States and Japan, and an emerging economy, the People's Republic of China (PRC). These countries were chosen for this research because they are the world's three largest oil consumers. The main objective of this study is to see whether these economies are still reactive to oil price movements. The results obtained suggest that the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers’ GDP growth is much lower than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. The main reasons for this lie in fuel substitution (higher use of nuclear energy, gas, and renewables), a declining population (for Japan), the shale gas revolution (for the United States), and strategic oil stocks and government-mandated energy efficiency targets in developed economies. All of these factors make developed economies more resistant to oil shocks. On the other hand, the impact of oil price movements on the PRC's inflation rate was found to be milder than in the two developed countries that were examined. The main cause for this is that the PRC experiences a larger forward shift in its aggregate supply due to higher growth, which allows it to avoid a massive increase in price levels following oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Majid Mohammadi Hossein Abadi & Rosa Farboudmanesh, 2016. "Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 91-102, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:21:y:2016:i:1:p:91-102
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2015.1057955
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13547860.2015.1057955
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    1. repec:eee:ecmode:v:77:y:2019:i:c:p:34-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:enepol:v:129:y:2019:i:c:p:436-451 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2016. "Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long-lasting Recession: Lessons for China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 23-47, March.
    4. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Japan’s Negative Interest Rate Policy," ADBI Working Papers 652, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. repec:eee:enepol:v:129:y:2019:i:c:p:1306-1319 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Alekhina, Victoriia & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2018. "Impact of World Oil Prices on an Energy Exporting Economy Including Monetary Policy," ADBI Working Papers 828, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2017. "Trade Linkages and Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables," ADBI Working Papers 777, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2018. "Volatility Linkages between Energy and Food Prices: Case of Selected Asian Countries," ADBI Working Papers 829, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Woo, Wing Thye & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2019. "Why Is Green Finance Important?," ADBI Working Papers 917, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. repec:eee:enepol:v:128:y:2019:i:c:p:796-806 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:enepol:v:128:y:2019:i:c:p:628-638 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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