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Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements

Author

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  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
  • Naoyuki Yoshino
  • Majid Mohammadi Hossein Abadi
  • Rosa Farboudmanesh

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and consumer price index inflation rate, in the developed economies of the United States and Japan, and an emerging economy, the People's Republic of China (PRC). These countries were chosen for this research because they are the world's three largest oil consumers. The main objective of this study is to see whether these economies are still reactive to oil price movements. The results obtained suggest that the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers’ GDP growth is much lower than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. The main reasons for this lie in fuel substitution (higher use of nuclear energy, gas, and renewables), a declining population (for Japan), the shale gas revolution (for the United States), and strategic oil stocks and government-mandated energy efficiency targets in developed economies. All of these factors make developed economies more resistant to oil shocks. On the other hand, the impact of oil price movements on the PRC's inflation rate was found to be milder than in the two developed countries that were examined. The main cause for this is that the PRC experiences a larger forward shift in its aggregate supply due to higher growth, which allows it to avoid a massive increase in price levels following oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Majid Mohammadi Hossein Abadi & Rosa Farboudmanesh, 2016. "Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 91-102, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:21:y:2016:i:1:p:91-102
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2015.1057955
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    Cited by:

    1. Fen Li & Zhehao Huang & Junhao Zhong & Khaldoon Albitar, 2020. "Do Tense Geopolitical Factors Drive Crude Oil Prices?," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad & Nakahigashi, Masaki, 2019. "Modelling the social funding and spill-over tax for addressing the green energy financing gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 34-41.
    3. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Time-varying energy and stock market integration in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 777-792.
    4. Le, Thai-Ha & Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2019. "Is energy security a driver for economic growth? Evidence from a global sample," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 436-451.
    5. Malik, Sadia & Qasim, Maha & Saeed, Hasan & Chang, Youngho & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2020. "Energy security in Pakistan: Perspectives and policy implications from a quantitative analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2017. "Trade Linkages and Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables," ADBI Working Papers 777, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2018. "Volatility Linkages between Energy and Food Prices: Case of Selected Asian Countries," ADBI Working Papers 829, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Nangia, Rita, 2019. "Securing Asia's energy future with regional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1262-1273.
    9. Victoriia Alekhina & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2019. "Exogeneity of world oil prices to the Russian Federation’s economy and monetary policy," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(4), pages 531-555, December.
    10. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2017. "Can stock market investors hedge energy risk? Evidence from Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 559-570.
    11. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Woo, Wing Thye & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2019. "Why Is Green Finance Important?," ADBI Working Papers 917, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    12. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2016. "Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long-lasting Recession: Lessons for China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 23-47, March.
    13. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Japan’s Negative Interest Rate Policy," ADBI Working Papers 652, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    14. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2019. "The impact of energy price uncertainty on macroeconomic variables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1306-1319.
    15. Alekhina, Victoriia & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2018. "Impact of World Oil Prices on an Energy Exporting Economy Including Monetary Policy," ADBI Working Papers 828, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    16. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 796-806.
    17. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Chang, Youngho, 2019. "Trade linkages and transmission of oil price fluctuations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    18. Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "How oil prices affect East and Southeast Asian economies: Evidence from financial markets and implications for energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 628-638.
    19. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Alekhina, Victoriia, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of Global Oil Price Determinants at the Disaggregated Level Over the Last Two Decades," ADBI Working Papers 982, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    20. Jibril, Halima & Chaudhuri, Kausik & Mohaddes, Kamiar, 2020. "Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: Does the source of the oil shock matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    21. Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2020. "Spillover Effects of Trade Shocks in the Central and Eastern European and Baltic Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(1), pages 39-68.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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