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Monetary policy in oil exporting countries with fixed exchange rate and open capital account: expectations matter

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  • CHAFIK, Omar

Abstract

Nominal interest rate is generally assumed to follow an UIP condition when the exchange rate is fixed, and the capital account is opened. Consequently, domestic interest rate is determined by foreign rates and the risk premium. This paper shows that for an oil exporting country like UAE, adjusting nominal interest rate only to foreign rate could be economically inconsistent. In fact, what really matters with exchange rate is expectations, and for an oil exporter country like UAE these expectations are significantly impacted by oil prices. By incorporating a market-expected exchange rate mechanism in a semi-structural New Keynesian Model, this paper highlights the importance of this mechanism and provides a consistent analytical framework.

Suggested Citation

  • CHAFIK, Omar, 2019. "Monetary policy in oil exporting countries with fixed exchange rate and open capital account: expectations matter," MPRA Paper 92558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92558
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    2. CHAFIK, Omar, 2018. "Financial cycle and conduct of monetary policy: theory and empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 88995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    4. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
    5. Batini, Nicoletta & Gabriel, Vasco & Levine, Paul, 2010. "A Floating versus managed exchange rate regime in a DSGE model of India," Working Papers 10/70, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
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    8. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," IMF Working Papers 09/234, International Monetary Fund.
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    13. CHAFIK, Omar, 2018. "Financial cycle and conduct of monetary policy: The amplifier/divider theory," MPRA Paper 89170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    18. repec:hrv:faseco:34721963 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Hossein Tavakolian & Hamed Ghiaie, 2019. "Optimal Inflation Targeting in a Dual-Exchange Rate Oil Economy," THEMA Working Papers 2019-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; exchange rate; New Keynesian Model; UIP condition; Bayesian estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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