How External Shocks and Exchange Rate Depreciations Affect Pakistan? Implications for Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime
A structural vector autoregression (VAR) model shows that external shocks are important in driving economic fluctuations in Pakistan and their importance has increased since September 11, 2001. The primary source of external shocks is foreign remittances, while foreign output has a limited effect. Keeping fixed external factors, an exogenous real exchange rate depreciation shock lowers output—a positive effect on real net exports (largely resulting from import compression rather export expansion)—is more than offset by a decline in domestic demand. The absence of common shocks with major trading partners, the importance of remittances, conventional expansionary effects on the trade balance following a real currency depreciation, and only limited evidence that credibility of anti-inflationary policy would improve with a currency peg support greater exchange rate flexibility. However, the rather large contractionary effects of real exchange rate depreciation on domestic demand suggest that greater exchange rate flexibility could destabilize aggregate output.
|Date of creation:||15 Nov 2005|
|Date of revision:||Jan 2006|
|Publication status:||Published in SBP-Research Bulletin 1.2(2006): pp. 61-88|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000.
"Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
- Steven B. Kamin & John H. Rogers, 1997. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," International Finance Discussion Papers 580, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000.
"Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?,"
Research Department Publications
4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1997.
"Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output,"
BIS Working Papers
48, Bank for International Settlements.
- Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1998. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," International Finance Discussion Papers 611, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999.
"Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility,"
NBER Working Papers
7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
- John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14, May.
- Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004.
"Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004.
"The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation,"
14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Aynul Hasan & Ashfaque H. Khan, 1994. "Impact of Devaluation on Pakistan's External Trade: An Econometric Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1205-1215.
- Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Fear Of Floating,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
- Husain, Aasim M. & Mody, Ashoka & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2005. "Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-64, January.
- J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
- Shaghil Ahmed & Christopher J. Gust & Steven B. Kamin & Jonathan Huntley, 2002. "Are depreciations as contractionary as devaluations? A comparison of selected emerging and industrial economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 737, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rehana Siddiqui & Naeem Akhtar, 1999. "The Impact of Changes in Exchange Rate on Prices: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1059-1066.
- Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
- P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976.
"Contractionary Effects of Devaluations,"
191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ehsan U. Choudhri & Mohsin S. Khan, 2002. "The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Is Rupee Devaluation In Inflationary?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 107-120.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.