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The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Is Rupee Devaluation In Inflationary?

Author

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  • Ehsan U. Choudhri

    (Carleton University, Canada.)

  • Mohsin S. Khan

    (International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.c.)

Abstract

This paper challenges the popular view that devaluation of the rupee is inflationary. Recent developments in the theoretical literature are reviewed to explain why consumer prices would be unresponsive to exchange rate changes in the short run. Then empirical tests are conducted for Pakistan during the period 1982 to 2001 to examine whether inflation is systematically related to changes in the exchange rate. The empirical analysis finds no association between rupee devaluations and inflation in Pakistan. It appears, therefore, that concerns about the inflationary consequences of rupee devaluation are unsupported by the facts

Suggested Citation

  • Ehsan U. Choudhri & Mohsin S. Khan, 2002. "The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Is Rupee Devaluation In Inflationary?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 107-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:41:y:2002:i:2:p:107-120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Naushin Mahmood & Durr-E-Nayab, 1998. "Gender Dimensions of Demographic Change in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 705-725.
    2. SABlHA HASSAN SYED, 1978. "Female Status and Fertility in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 17(4), pages 408-430.
    3. Ghulam Yasin Soomro, 2000. "A Re-examination of Fertility Transition in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(3), pages 247-261.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesus Felipe & J. S. L. McCombie & Kaukab Naqvi, 2010. "Is Pakistan's Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 477-496.
    2. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Azer Islam Ogli Garayev & Sabuhi Mileddin Ogli Tanriverdiev & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2019. "Analysis of the oil, price and currency factor of economic growth in Azerbaijan," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 6(3), pages 1335-1353, March.
    3. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    4. Sikander Rahim, 2014. "What Does the Exchange Rate Do? A Status Symbol?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(Special E), pages 35-60, September.
    5. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    6. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
    7. Muhammad Aslam Chaudhry & Munir A. S. Choudhary, 2006. "Why the State Bank of Pakistan should not Adopt Inflation Targeting," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 195-209.
    8. Sadia Tahir, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 319-342.
    9. Saade CHAMI & Selim ELEKDAG & Todd SCHNEIDER & Nabil BEN LTAIFA, 2008. "Can A Rule‐Based Monetary Policy Framework Work In A Developing Country? The Case Of Yemen," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 46(1), pages 75-99, March.
    10. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Rehman, Muhammad, 2017. "The relevance and relative robustness of sources of inflation bias in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 283-303.
    11. Saira Tufail & Sadia Batool, 2013. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 1-35, July-Dec.
    12. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "What Do We Know of Exchange Rate Pass Through?," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:5, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    13. Matthew McCartney, 2015. "The Missing Economic Magic: The Failure of Trade Liberalization and Exchange Rate Devaluation in Pakistan, 1980–2012," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 20(Special E), pages 59-86, September.
    14. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    15. Atif Ali Jaffri, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Does Misalignment Matter?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 19-35.
    16. Shaghil Ahmed & Iffat Ara & Kalim Hyder, 2006. "How External Shocks and Exchange Rate Depreciations Affect Pakistan? Implications for Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 61-68.
    17. Kashif MUNIR, 2022. "Linear and nonlinear effect of exchange rate on inflation in Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(631), S), pages 165-174, Summer.
    18. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Nabil Ben Ltaifa & Todd Schneider & Mr. Saade Chami, 2007. "Can a Rule-Based Monetary Policy Framework Work in a Developing Country? The Case of Yemen," IMF Working Papers 2007/006, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Suresh Ramakrishnan & Shamaila Butt & Melati Ahmad Anuar, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic, Oil Prices and Socio-economic Factors on Exchange Rate in Pakistan: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 489-499.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 2005/105, International Monetary Fund.
    21. M. Ali Kemal & Rana Murad Haider, 2004. "Exchange Rate Behaviour after Recent Float: The Experience of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 829-852.
    22. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Exchange Rate Determination and Out of Sample Forecasting: Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 61997, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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