Is Pakistan's Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth
This paper examines the extent to which Pakistan's growth has been, or is likely to be, constrained by its balance of payments. Evidence presented suggests that Pakistan's maximum growth rate consistent with equilibrium on the basic balance is approximately 5% per annum. This is below the long-term target GDP growth rate of 7-8% per annum. This balance-of-payments constrained growth approach provides some important implications for Pakistan's development policy. Real exchange rate depreciations will not lead to an improvement in the current account. Pakistan must lift the constraints that impede higher growth in exports. In particular, it must shift its export structure towards more sophisticated products with a higher income elasticity of demand.
Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CODS20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CODS20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Paul Krugman, 1988.
"Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
- Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1993.
"Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?,"
NBER Working Papers
4436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002.
"The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
- Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979.
"The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences,"
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review,
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
- Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
- Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
- Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2003.
"Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
10152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Hwang, Jason & Rodrik, Dani, 2005.
"What You Export Matters,"
Working Paper Series
rwp05-063, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Nelson, Richard R & Pack, Howard, 1999.
"The Asian Miracle and Modern Growth Theory,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 416-36, July.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2232, David K. Levine.
- repec:pid:journl:v:38:y:1999:i:4:p:1059-1066 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000.
"Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
- Steven B. Kamin & John H. Rogers, 1997. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," International Finance Discussion Papers 580, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1995.
"Inflation crises and long-run growth,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1517, The World Bank.
- Kaldor, Nicholas, 1970. "The Case for Regional Policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 337-48, November.
- Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F50-F72, 02.
- Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
- P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976.
"Contractionary Effects of Devaluations,"
191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
- repec:pid:journl:v:41:y:2002:i:2:p:107-120 is not listed on IDEAS
- Penelope Pacheco-Lopez & A. P. Thirlwall, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation and the Trade-Off Between Growth and the Balance of Payments in Latin America," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 469-490.
- Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:oxdevs:v:38:y:2010:i:4:p:477-496. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.