The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth
The aim of this paper is to estimate the sensitivity of the natural rate of growth to the actual rate of growth for 15 OECD countries over the period 1961 to 1995, on the hypothesis that the natural rate of growth is not exogenously given. To do this we estimate the natural rate of growth and, then, how it changes when the actual growth rate is different from the natural rate. As a side test of the endogeneity hypothesis, we also test for the direction of causality between national output and factor inputs for the same set of countries. Our results support the idea that the natural rate of growth is responsive to the actual rate of growth and bring to the fore the importance of focusing on demand as well as supply for an understanding of growth rate differences between countries.
|Date of creation:||Nov 1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP|
Phone: +44 (0)1227 827497
Web page: http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2232, David K. Levine.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1997. "On Modelling the Long Run in Applied Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 169-77, January.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Paul Krugman, 1988.
"Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
- Young, Allyn A., 1928. "Increasing Returns and Economic Progress," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 38, pages 527-542.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Dixon, R & Thirlwall, A P, 1975. "A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-14, July.
- Setterfield, Mark, 1997. "'History versus Equilibrium' and the Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 365-78, May.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2135, David K. Levine.
- Kaldor, Nicholas, 1970. "The Case for Regional Policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 337-48, November.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991.
"Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
- Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pesaran, M.H., 1996.
"The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9612, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-91, January.
- Targetti, Ferdinando & Foti, Alessandro, 1997. "Growth and Productivity: A Model of Cumulative Growth and Catching Up," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 27-43, January.
- Perron, P, 1988.
"The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis,"
338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
- Perron, Pierre, 1990.
"Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
- Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:9821. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tracey Girling)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.