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The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth – an Empirical Study for Latin-American Countries

  • Lena Vogel


    (Department for Economics and Politics, University of Hamburg)

The aim of this paper is to analyse the sensitivity of the natural rate of growth to the actual rate of growth for a sample of eleven Latin-American countries, assuming the natural rate to be determined endogenously by changes in the actual rate of growth. The natural rates of growth are estimated in a system of SUR estimations over the period 1986-2003. In order to determine whether they react endogenously to changes in the actual rate of growth, a dummy variable for boom periods is added to the system of regressions. In the second part of the empirical analysis, the direction of causality between input growth and output growth is then tested for four of the countries in the first sample. The results confirm not only the hypothesis about the endogeneity of the natural rate of growth, but also show causality from output growth to input growth to be much stronger than the reverse. Length: 28 pages

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Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik in its series Macroeconomics and Finance Series with number 200704.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:200704
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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  2. Urbain, J-P., 1991. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Papers 9103, Liege - Centre de Recherches Economiques et Demographiques.
  3. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  7. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2002. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 1-3, January.
  8. Granger, Clive W J, 1997. "On Modelling the Long Run in Applied Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 169-77, January.
  9. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  10. William Easterly, 2002. "The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550423, June.
  11. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth," Studies in Economics 9821, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  12. Dixon, R & Thirlwall, A P, 1975. "A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-14, July.
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