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The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth – an Empirical Study for Latin-American Countries

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  • Lena Vogel

    (Department for Economics and Politics, University of Hamburg)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the sensitivity of the natural rate of growth to the actual rate of growth for a sample of eleven Latin-American countries, assuming the natural rate to be determined endogenously by changes in the actual rate of growth. The natural rates of growth are estimated in a system of SUR estimations over the period 1986-2003. In order to determine whether they react endogenously to changes in the actual rate of growth, a dummy variable for boom periods is added to the system of regressions. In the second part of the empirical analysis, the direction of causality between input growth and output growth is then tested for four of the countries in the first sample. The results confirm not only the hypothesis about the endogeneity of the natural rate of growth, but also show causality from output growth to input growth to be much stronger than the reverse. Length: 28 pages

Suggested Citation

  • Lena Vogel, 2007. "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth – an Empirical Study for Latin-American Countries," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200704, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:200704
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ofria, Ferdinando & Millemaci, Emanuele, 2010. "Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law and increasing returns to scale: a comparison across developed countries," MPRA Paper 30941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 213-245.
    3. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2010. "Endogenous technological change, income distribution, and unemployment with inter-class conflict," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 123-134, May.
    4. Magacho, Guilherme R. & Spinola, Danilo, 2020. "Supply and demand in Kaldorian growth models: a proposal for dynamic adjustment," MERIT Working Papers 2020-032, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. José Carrión Pesantez & Diego Ochoa-Jiménez, 2018. "Endogeneity of the natural rate of economic growth in Ecuador: 1970-2014," Economía, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (IIES). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Universidad de Los Andes. Mérida, Venezuela, vol. 43(45), pages 49-71, January-J.
    6. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    7. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    8. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    9. Senay Acikgoz & Merter Mert, 2010. "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth: An Application to Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(4), pages 447-469, December.
    10. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2012. "Is the long-run equilibrium wage-led or profit-led? A Kaleckian approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 231-244.
    11. A.P. Thirlwall, 2018. "Una vita nell’economia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 71(283), pages 179-210.
    12. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The Endogenous Nature of the ‘Natural’ Rate of Growth," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Perche' la produttivita' degli investimenti varia tra paesi? (Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 70(279), pages 197-231.
    14. Molerés-Regalado, Estefanía. & Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio., 2013. "On Harrod’s Natural Rate of Growth and the Role of Demand: an Empirical Assessment," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(16), pages 29-49, primer se.
    15. Fortuno-Hernández, Josefa Carolina. & Landa-Díaz, Heri Óscar., 2014. "Gasto público, inversión y crecimiento en México , 1980-2014," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(19), pages 33-52, segundo s.
    16. Senay, Acikgöz & Mert, Merter, 2015. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An alternative approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural rate of growth; actual rate of growth; endogeneity; Granger causality; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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