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The balance of payments constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence

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  • Lanzafame, Matteo

Abstract

This paper implements a panel approach to investigate the empirical relevance of ‘Thirlwall’s Law’, which states that long-run growth must be consistent with balance of payments (BOP) equilibrium and is, thus, determined on the demand side. Building on ARDL modelling, mean-group and pooled mean-group estimation methods, we use annual data over the 1960-2010 years for a panel of 22 OECD countries and find significant support for the ‘Law’. Next, we also explore empirically the hypothesis that the BOP-constrained growth rate (yb) must equal the natural (or potential) rate of growth (yn) and find that the data do not reject this hypothesis. Finally, we adopt a new approach, based on panel Granger-causality methods, to explore the direction of causality between yb and yn. The results indicate the existence of unidirectional long-run causality from yb to yn , thus reinforcing the view, embodied in the ‘Law’, that long-run growth is demand-determined and constrained by the BOP.

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  • Lanzafame, Matteo, 2011. "The balance of payments constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 33130, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33130
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2019. "Manufacture Content and Financialisation: An Empirical Assessment," Department of Economics University of Siena 811, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Ignacio Perrotini-Hernandez & Juan Alberto Vazquez-Munoz, 2017. "Endogenous growth and economic capacity: Theory and empirical evidence for the NAFTA countries," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 247-282.
    4. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Distributive cycles and endogenous technical change in a BoPC growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-233.
    5. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 213-245.
    6. Ottorino Morresi, 2017. "How much is CEO education worth to a firm? Evidence from European firms," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 311-353.
    7. Guilherme R. Magacho & Danilo Spinola, 2024. "Supply and Demand in Kaldorian Growth Models: A Proposal for Dynamic Adjustment," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 1613-1634, October.
    8. Ana Lourdes Morones Carrillo, 2016. "Crecimiento económico en México: restricción por la balanza de pagos," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 39-58, May.
    9. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Oreiro, José L. & Dávila Dávila, Mario W., 2018. "Endogenizing non-price competitiveness in a BoPC growth model with capital accumulation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 77-87.
    10. Juzhong Zhuang & Matteo Lanzafame & Jesus Felipe, 2015. "The People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints," Working Papers id:6656, eSocialSciences.
    11. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2018. "Alternative Approaches to Technological Change when Growth is BoPC," Department of Economics University of Siena 795, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    12. A.P. Thirlwall, 2018. "Una vita nell’economia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 71(283), pages 179-210.
    13. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Perche' la produttivita' degli investimenti varia tra paesi? (Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 70(279), pages 197-231.
    14. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Path dependence, distributive cycles and export capacity in a BoPC growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 258-272.
    15. Arus Tunian, 2015. "Current Account Deficit And Economic Growth In Armenia," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 21.
    16. Valeriy V. Mironov & Liudmila D. Konovalova, 2019. "Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, April.
    17. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    18. Mohammed Al- Mahish, 2017. "Does Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model Hold in Saudi Arabia?," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, March.
    19. Basil Oberholzer, 2023. "Green Growth and the Balance‐of‐payments Constraint," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(4), pages 804-840, July.
    20. Jesus Felipe & Matteo Lanzafame & Juzhong Zhuang, 2014. "The People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 418, Asian Development Bank.
    21. Bölükbaşı, Halime & Civcir, Irfan, 2024. "Imported Inputs, Balance of Payments and Economic Growth: a model and a test on the case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 319-332.
    22. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2020. "Alternative approaches to technological change in a small open economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 279-317, April.
    23. Leon Podkaminer, 2017. "“Thirlwall’s Law” reconsidered," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 29-57, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance of payments; endogenous growth; panel cointegration; pooled mean-group estimation; panel Granger-causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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