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The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth for a selection of Asian countries

  • Mark Dray
  • A. P. Thirlwall

This paper questions the assumption in all of mainstream growth theory that the Harrod natural rate of growth is exogenously determined and independent of the pressure of demand in an economy. We first present a simple statistical technique for estimating the natural rate of growth, and then show how it is possible to test for its endogeneity. The model is applied to ten Asian countries, and the results support the conclusions from previous studies of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and Latin American countries that the natural rate of growth is elastic to the actual rate of growth working through induced labor supply and productivity growth. Demand matters for economic growth.

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Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Journal of Post Keynesian Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 451-468

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Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:33:y:2011:i:3:p:451-468
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=109348

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  1. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
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