IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview

  • Anthony P. Thirlwall

    ()

    (University of Kent, Department of Economics)

Thirlwall's 1979 balance of payments constrained growth model predicts that a country's long run growth of GDP can be approximated by the ratio of the growth of real exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports assuming negligible effects from real exchange rate movements. The paper surveys developments of the model since then, allowing for capital flows, interest payments on debt, terms of trade movements, and disaggregation of the model by commodities and trading partners. Various tests of the model are discussed, and an extensive list of papers that have examined the model is presented.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/9404/9299
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Economia civile in its journal PSL Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): 64 (2011)
Issue (Month): 259 ()
Pages: 307-351

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:psl:pslqrr:2011:41
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.economiacivile.it

Order Information: Web: http://www.pslquarterlyreview.info

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Alessandro Roncaglia, 2008. "From BNL-QR to PSL-QR: the history (1947-2007) and prospects of a journal," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 61(244-247), pages 3-32.
  2. Richard N. Cooper, 1982. "The Gold Standard: Historical Facts and Future," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 1-56.
  3. Robert A. Blecker, 1998. "International Competitiveness, Relative Wages, and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 20(4), pages 495-526, July.
  4. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2001. "The balance-of-payments constraint:from balanced trade to sustainable debt," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 381-400.
  5. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2002. "Thirlwall's Law and Uneven Development," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 24(3), pages 367-390, April.
  6. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
  7. Gouvea, Raphael Rocha & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2011. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in a multisectoral framework: a panel data investigation," MPRA Paper 29816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1970. "The Case for Regional Policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 337-48, November.
  9. J.S.L. McCombie & Mark Roberts, 2002. "The Role of the Balance of Payments in Economic Growth," Chapters, in: The Economics of Demand-Led Growth, chapter 6 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  10. Dillon Alleyne & Alfred A. Francis, 2008. "Balance Of Payments-Constrained Growth In Developing Countries: A Theoretical Perspective," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 189-202, 05.
  11. A.P. Thirlwall, 2006. "The Structure of Production, the Balance of Payments and Growth in Developing Countries: An Essay in Memory of Mohammed Nureldin Hussain 1954–2005," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 18(1), pages 98-122.
  12. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  13. Taylor, Lance, 1981. "South-north trade and southern growth : Bleak prospects from the structuralist point of view," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 589-602, November.
  14. Veridiana Ramos Carvalho & Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Antonio Tiago Loureiro Araujo dos Santos, 2008. "A Restrição Externa como Fator Limitante do Crescimento Econômico Brasileiro: Um Teste Empírico," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 9(2), pages 285-307.
  15. Yongbok Jeon, 2009. "Balance-of-payment constrained growth: the case of China, 1979-2002," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 135-146.
  16. Dixon, R & Thirlwall, A P, 1975. "A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-14, July.
  17. J.-C. Moreno-Brid, 1998. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(207), pages 413-433.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  19. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes, 2011. "Application of the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model to Portugal, 1965-2008," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 34(2), pages 353-380, January.
  20. Carlos Garcimartín & Luis Alberto Rivas & Santiago Diaz De Sarralde, 2008. "Accounting for Irish growth: a balance-of-payments-constraint approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 409-433, April.
  21. Dawn Richards Elliott & Rupert Rhodd, 1999. "Explaining growth rate differences in highly indebted countries: an extension to Thirlwall and Hussain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1145-1148.
  22. Jesus Felipe & J. S. L. McCombie & Kaukab Naqvi, 2010. "Is Pakistan's Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 477-496.
  23. Mark Dray & A. P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth for a selection of Asian countries," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 33(3), pages 451-468, April.
  24. Carlos Garcimartín & Luis A. Rivas & Pilar García Martínez, 2010. "On the role of relative prices and capital flows in balance-of-payments-constrained growth: the experiences of Portugal and Spain in the euro area," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 33(2), pages 281-306, January.
  25. Virmantas Kvedaras, 2005. "Explanation of Economic Growth Differences in the CEE Countries: Importance of the BOP Constraint," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 48-65, July.
  26. Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2000. "Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(215), pages 433-445.
  27. A. P. Thirlwall, 1991. "Professor Krugman's 45-Degree Rule," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 14(1), pages 23-28, October.
  28. Paul Krugman, 1988. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Luciano Boggio & Gilberto Seravalli, 2002. "Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?A comment," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 219-227.
  30. Gustavo Britto & John S. L. McCombie, 2009. "Thirlwall's law and the long-term equilibrium growth rate: an application to Brazil," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 32(1), pages 115-136, September.
  31. Gabriel Porcile & Marcus Vinicius Dutra & Antonio J. A. Meirelles, 2007. "Technology gap, real wages, and learning in a balance-of-payments---constrained growth model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 29(3), pages 473-500, May.
  32. Thomas Palley, 2003. "Pitfalls in the Theory of Growth: An application to the balance of payments constrained growth model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 75-84.
  33. Mario García-Molina & Jeanne Kelly Ruíz-Tavera, 2009. "Thirlwall's law and the two-gap model: toward a unified "dynamic gap" model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 32(2), pages 269-290, December.
  34. repec:ucm:wpaper:05-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Jose M. Serrano Sanz & Marcela Sabate & Dolores Gadea, 1999. "Economic growth and the long run balance of payments constraint in Spain," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 389-417.
  36. Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 1997. "An Application of Thirlwall's Law to the Spanish Economy," Studies in Economics 9708, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  37. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
  38. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, March.
  39. A. P. Thirl Wall, 2001. "The Relation between the Warranted Growth Rate, the Natural Rate, and the Balance of Payments Equilibrium Growth Rate," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 24(1), pages 81-88, October.
  40. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2008. "North-South Ricardian trade and growth under the balance-of-payments constraint," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 31(2), pages 299-324, December.
  41. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  42. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2006. "A Structural Economic Dynamics Approach To Balance-Of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 119, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  43. Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "Structural changes, cointegration and the empirics of Thirlwall's law," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(10), pages 1315-1329.
  44. Luis Bértola & Hermes Higachi & Gabriel Porcile, 2002. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil: a test of Thirlwall's Law, 1890-1973," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 25(1), pages 123-140, January.
  45. M. Ansari & N. Hashemzadeh & Y. Xi, 2000. "The Chronicle of Economic Growth in Southeast Asian Countries: Does Thirlwall's Law Provide an Adequate Explanation?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 22(4), pages 573-588, July.
  46. José A. Alonso & Carlos Garcimartín, 1999. "A New Approach to Balance-of-Payments Constraint: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 259-282, January.
  47. Jose Antonio Alonso, 1999. "Growth and the external constraint: lessons from the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 245-253.
  48. Leonardo V. Vera, 2006. "The balance-of-paymentsâconstrained growth model: a northâsouth approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 29(1), pages 67-92, October.
  49. H. Sonmez Atesoglu, 1993. "Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 15(4), pages 507-514, July.
  50. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, January.
  51. H. Sonmez Atesoglu, 1997. "Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model and Its Implications for the United States," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 327-335, April.
  52. Smith, Adam, 1776. "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number smith1776.
  53. Guadalupe Fugarolas Alvarez-Ude & David Matesanz Gomez, 2008. "Long- and short-run balance of payments adjustment: Argentine economic growth constrained," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 815-820.
  54. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 2003. "Capital Flows, Interest Payments and the Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth Model: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2-3), pages 346-365, 05.
  55. Raphael Rocha Gouvêa & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2011. "Structural Change,Balance-of-Payments Constraint and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall’s Law," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 74, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  56. Penélope Pacheco López & A. P. Thirlwall, 2006. "Trade liberalization, the income elasticity of demand for imports, and growth in Latin America," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 29(1), pages 41-61, October.
  57. Kevin Nell, 2003. "A 'Generalised' Version of the Balance-of-Payments Growth Model: An application to neighbouring regions," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 249-267.
  58. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
  59. Dimitris Christopoulos & EFthymios Tsionas, 2003. "A Reassessment Of Balance Of Payments Constrained Growth: Results From Panel Unit Root And Panel Cointegration Tests," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 39-54.
  60. Jani Bekó, 2003. "The validity of the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model for a small economy in transition: the case of Slovenia," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 26(1), pages 69-93, October.
  61. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1997. "The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-orientated Approach to Economic Growth: an Evaluation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 5-26.
  62. Paul Turner, 1999. "The Balance of Payments Constraint and the Post 1973 Slowdown of Economic Growth in the G7 Economies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 41-53.
  63. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of India," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 27(4), pages 655-687, July.
  64. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid & Esteban Pérez, 1999. "Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth in Central America: 1950-96," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 22(1), pages 131-147, October.
  65. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
  66. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile & Sebastián Rovira, 2010. "Structural change and the BOP-constraint: why did Latin America fail to converge?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 389-411, March.
  67. A. P. Thirlwall, 1997. "Reflections on the Concept of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 377-385, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:psl:pslqrr:2011:41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carlo D'Ippoliti)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.