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Growth and the external constraint: lessons from the Spanish case

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  • Jose Antonio Alonso

Abstract

The present article attempts to determine the role played by the balance-of-payments constraint on economic growth in Spain (1960-94), using cointegration techniques. This empirical exercise also serves to reveal some shortcomings in the usual procedures for estimating Thirlwall's Law. In particular, the Spanish case reveals how important it is to introduce a variable that expresses the competitiveness gains generated by improvements in quality of the goods and services into the export function. It also demonstrates the inadequate simplification entailed in an a priori exclusion of relative prices in external equilibrium equation. Not taking these two aspects into consideration may give rise to an erroneous confirmation of Thirlwall's Law, especially if, as in the Spanish case, both effects offset each other. Finally, if the aim is to analyse long-term relationships between variables, it would seem advisable to use procedures, such as cointegration, with variables in levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Antonio Alonso, 1999. "Growth and the external constraint: lessons from the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 245-253.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:2:p:245-253
    DOI: 10.1080/000368499324471
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
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    Cited by:

    1. Felipe, Jesus & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2020. "The PRC's long-run growth through the lens of the export-led growth model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 163-181.
    2. Salvador Barrios & Holger Görg & Eric Strobl, 2003. "Explaining Firms’ Export Behaviour: R&D, Spillovers and the Destination Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 475-496, September.
    3. Salvador Barrios, "undated". "Foreign Direct Investment Productivity Spillovers. Evidence From the Spanish Experience," Studies on the Spanish Economy 86, FEDEA.
    4. Sebastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2022. "The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 100-129, January.
    5. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    7. Julio Herrera & Jesus Santamaria, 2001. "The external constraint to the economic growth in three blocks of the world economy," ERSA conference papers ersa01p244, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Özer, Mustafa & Malovic, Marko, 2020. "Ball and chain effect: Is Turkey’s growth rate constrained by current account deficit?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    9. Salvador Barrios, "undated". "Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers," Working Papers 2000-19, FEDEA.
    10. Douglas Alcantara Alencar & Eduardo Strachman, 2014. "Investimento Direto Estrangeiro E Balanço De Pagamentos, No Brasil: 1994 E 2008," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 048, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Douglas Alcantara Alencar & Douglas Alcantara Alencar & Eduardo Strachman, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment And Balance Of Payments In Latin America (1990-2011)," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 081, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2012. "The balance-of-payments constraint on economic growth in a long-term perspective: Spain, 1850–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 105-117.
    13. Salvador Barrios & Eric Strobl, 2002. "Foreign direct investment and productivity spillovers: Evidence from the Spanish experience," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(3), pages 459-481, September.
    14. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    15. Félix Jiménez, 2018. "Capacidad productiva, cambio técnico y productividad: Estimaciones alternativas del producto de largo plazo," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-454, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    16. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    17. Woocheol Lee, 2021. "Structural Change, Balance of Payments Constraint, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 631-653, December.
    18. Salvador Barrios & Holger Görg & Eric Strobl, "undated". "Explaining Firms' Export Behaviour: The Role of R&D and Spillovers," Working Papers 2001-12, FEDEA.
    19. Senay, Acikgöz & Mert, Merter, 2015. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An alternative approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Leon Podkaminer, 2017. "“Thirlwall’s Law” reconsidered," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 29-57, February.

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