IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Modeling the International-Trade Network: A Gravity Approach

  • Marco Duenas
  • Giorgio Fagiolo

This paper investigates whether the gravity model (GM) can explain the statistical properties of the International Trade Network (ITN). We fit data on international-trade flows with a GM specification using alternative fitting techniques and we employ GM estimates to build a weighted predicted ITN, whose topological properties are compared to observed ones. Furthermore, we propose an estimation strategy to predict the binary ITN with a GM. We find that the GM successfully replicates the weighted-network structure of the ITN, only if one fixes its binary architecture equal to the observed one. Conversely, the GM performs very badly when asked to predict the presence of a link, or the level of the trade flow it carries, whenever the binary structure must be simultaneously estimated.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1112.2867
File Function: Latest version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1112.2867.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1112.2867
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
  2. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "A gravity model of sovereign lending: trade, default and credit," Working Paper Series 2002-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Barigozzi, Matteo & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Mangioni, Giuseppe, 2011. "Identifying the community structure of the international-trade multi-network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2051-2066.
  4. Fagiolo, Giorgio & Reyes, Javier & Schiavo, Stefano, 2008. "On the topological properties of the world trade web: A weighted network analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3868-3873.
  5. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262232197.
  6. Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2007. "Using Complex Network Analysis to Assess the Evolution of International Economic Integration: The cases of East Asia and Latin America," LEM Papers Series 2007/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  7. Artis, Michael J & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2003. "The Transmission Mechanism in a Changing World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4014, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Garlaschelli, Diego & Loffredo, Maria I., 2005. "Structure and evolution of the world trade network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 138-144.
  11. Giorgio Fagiolo & Tiziano Squartini & Diego Garlaschelli, 2011. "Null Models of Economic Networks: The Case of the World Trade Web," LEM Papers Series 2011/26, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  12. Angela Abbate & Luca De Benedictis & Giorgio Fagiolo & Lucia Tajoli, 2012. "The International Trade Network in Space and Time," LEM Papers Series 2012/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  13. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kohler, Wilhelm K., 2006. "Exploring the intensive and extensive margins of world trade," Munich Reprints in Economics 20610, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  14. Tiziano Squartini & Giorgio Fagiolo & Diego Garlaschelli, 2011. "Randomizing world trade. I. A binary network analysis," Papers 1103.1243, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
  15. Dées, Stéphane & Saint-Guilhem, Arthur, 2009. "The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time," Working Paper Series 1034, European Central Bank.
  16. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
  17. Helliwell, John F. & Padmore, Tim, 1985. "Empirical studies of macroeconomic interdependence," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1107-1151 Elsevier.
  18. Evenett, S. J. & Keller, W., 1994. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Working papers 9713, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  19. Matteo Barigozzi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Diego Garlaschelli, 2009. "Multinetwork of international trade: A commodity-specific analysis," Papers 0908.1879, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
  20. Massimo Riccaboni & Stefano Schiavo, 2009. "The Structure and Growth of Weighted Networks," Papers 0908.0348, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2009.
  21. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
  22. D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," Papers physics/0701030, arXiv.org.
  23. Raja Kali & Fabio Mendez & Javier Reyes, 2007. "Trade structure and economic growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 245-269.
  24. repec:lmu:muenar:20646 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 159-164, 05.
  26. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2011. "The World Trade Network," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1417-1454, 08.
  27. Giorgio Fagiolo, 2010. "The international-trade network: gravity equations and topological properties," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, June.
  28. Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "The World-Trade Web: Topological Properties, Dynamics, and Evolution," Sciences Po publications 2008/16, Sciences Po.
  29. Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2007. "The Evolution of the World Trade Web," LEM Papers Series 2007/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  30. Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2008. "Assessing The Evolution Of International Economic Integration Using Random Walk Betweenness Centrality: The Cases Of East Asia And Latin America," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 685-702.
  31. Martijn Burger & Frank van Oort & Gert-Jan Linders, 2009. "On the Specification of the Gravity Model of Trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-inflated Estimation," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 167-190.
  32. Michele FRATIANNI, 2007. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade," Working Papers 307, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  33. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel S. Kortum & Sebastian Sotelo, 2012. "International Trade: Linking Micro and Macro," NBER Working Papers 17864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Tiziano Squartini & Giorgio Fagiolo & Diego Garlaschelli, 2011. "Randomizing world trade. II. A weighted network analysis," Papers 1103.1249, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
  35. D. Garlaschelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2005. "Structure and Evolution of the World Trade Network," Papers physics/0502066, arXiv.org, revised May 2005.
  36. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1112.2867. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.