IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modeling the International-Trade Network: a gravity approach

  • Marco Dueñas

    ()

  • Giorgio Fagiolo

    ()

We investigate whether the gravity model (GM) can explain the statistical properties of the International Trade Network (ITN). We fit data on trade flows with a GM using alternative estimation techniques and we build GM-based predictions for the weighted topological properties of the ITN, which are then compared to the observed ones. Our exercises show that the GM: (i) may replicate part of the weighted-network structure only if the observed binary architecture is kept fixed; (ii) is not able to explain higher-order statistics that, like clustering, require the knowledge of triadic link-weight topological patterns, even if the binary structure perfectly replicates the observed one; (iii) performs very badly when asked to predict the presence of a link, or the level of the trade flow it carries, whenever the binary structure must be simultaneously estimated. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11403-013-0108-y
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination.

Volume (Year): 8 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 155-178

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:155-178
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/economic+theory/journal/11403

Order Information: Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Fagiolo, Giorgio & Reyes, Javier & Schiavo, Stefano, 2008. "On the topological properties of the world trade web: A weighted network analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3868-3873.
  2. Santos Silva, J.M.C & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," International Trade 9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
  4. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2006. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(4), pages 642-674, December.
  5. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262232197, June.
  6. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Barigozzi, Matteo & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Mangioni, Giuseppe, 2011. "Identifying the community structure of the international-trade multi-network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2051-2066.
  8. Tiziano Squartini & Giorgio Fagiolo & Diego Garlaschelli, 2011. "Randomizing world trade. I. A binary network analysis," Papers 1103.1243, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
  9. Garlaschelli, Diego & Loffredo, Maria I., 2005. "Structure and evolution of the world trade network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 138-144.
  10. Giorgio Fagiolo, 2010. "The international-trade network: gravity equations and topological properties," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, June.
  11. Giorgio Fagiolo & Tiziano Squartini & Diego Garlaschelli, 2013. "Null models of economic networks: the case of the world trade web," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 75-107, April.
  12. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  13. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2007. "Using Complex Network Analysis to Assess the Evolution of International Economic Integration: The cases of East Asia and Latin America," Sciences Po publications 2007/25, Sciences Po.
  15. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Martijn Burger & Frank van Oort & Gert-Jan Linders, 2009. "On the Specification of the Gravity Model of Trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-inflated Estimation," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 167-190.
  17. Dées, Stéphane & Saint-Guilhem, Arthur, 2009. "The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time," Working Paper Series 1034, European Central Bank.
  18. D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," Papers physics/0701030, arXiv.org.
  19. D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 159-164, 05.
  20. Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "The World-Trade Web: Topological Properties, Dynamics, and Evolution," LEM Papers Series 2008/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  21. Massimo Riccaboni & Stefano Schiavo, 2009. "The Structure and Growth of Weighted Networks," Papers 0908.0348, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2009.
  22. Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2008. "Assessing The Evolution Of International Economic Integration Using Random Walk Betweenness Centrality: The Cases Of East Asia And Latin America," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 685-702.
  23. Matteo Barigozzi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Diego Garlaschelli, 2009. "Multinetwork of international trade: A commodity-specific analysis," Papers 0908.1879, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
  24. D. Garlaschelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2005. "Structure and Evolution of the World Trade Network," Papers physics/0502066, arXiv.org, revised May 2005.
  25. Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2007. "The Evolution of the World Trade Web," LEM Papers Series 2007/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  26. Artis, Michael J & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2003. "The Transmission Mechanism in a Changing World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4014, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Michele Fratianni, 2007. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade," Working Papers 2007-17, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
  28. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "A gravity model of sovereign lending: trade, default and credit," Working Paper Series 2002-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  29. Helliwell, John F. & Padmore, Tim, 1985. "Empirical studies of macroeconomic interdependence," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1107-1151 Elsevier.
  30. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2009. "The World Trade Network," Working Papers 51-2009, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Mar 2009.
  31. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
  32. Raja Kali & Fabio Mendez & Javier Reyes, 2007. "Trade structure and economic growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 245-269.
  33. repec:lmu:muenar:20646 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Tiziano Squartini & Giorgio Fagiolo & Diego Garlaschelli, 2011. "Randomizing world trade. II. A weighted network analysis," Papers 1103.1249, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:155-178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Christopher F Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.