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Financial Contagion On The International Trade Network

  • RAJA KALI
  • JAVIER REYES

"We combine data on international trade linkages with a network approach to map the global trading system as an interdependent complex network. This enables us to obtain indicators of how well connected a country is into the global trading system. We use these network-based measures of connectedness to explain stock market returns during recent episodes of financial crisis. We find that a crisis is amplified if the epicenter country is better integrated into the trade network. However, target countries affected by such a shock are in turn better able to dissipate the impact if they are well integrated into the network. A network approach can help explain why the Mexican, Asian, and Russian financial crises were highly contagious, while the crises that originated in Venezuela and Argentina did not have such a virulent effect. We suggest that a network approach incorporating the cascading and diffusion of interdependent ripples when a shock hits a specific part of the global trade network provides us with an improved explanation of financial contagion." ("JEL" F10, "F36", F40, "G15") Copyright (c) 2009 Western Economic Association International.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2009.00249.x
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Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 48 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 1072-1101

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:48:y:2010:i:4:p:1072-1101
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  1. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 261-283, December.
  4. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
  5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2007. "On the Topological Properties of the World Trade Web: A Weighted Network Analysis," Papers 0708.4359, arXiv.org.
  6. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  7. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  8. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2008. "The center and the periphery: The globalization of financial turmoil," MPRA Paper 14100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Forbes, Kristin & Chinn, Menzie, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt6z74b3x7, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  11. Raja Kali & Javier Reyes, 2007. "The architecture of globalization: a network approach to international economic integration," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 595-620, July.
  12. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
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