Null models of economic networks: the case of the world trade web
In all empirical-network studies, the observed properties of economic networks are informative only if compared with a well-defined null model that can quantitatively predict the behavior of such properties in constrained graphs. However, predictions of the available null-model methods can be derived analytically only under assumptions (e.g., sparseness of the network) that are unrealistic for most economic networks like the world trade web (WTW). In this paper we study the evolution of the WTW using a recently-proposed family of null network models. The method allows to analytically obtain the expected value of any network statistic across the ensemble of networks that preserve on average some local properties, and are otherwise fully random. We compare expected and observed properties of the WTW in the period 1950–2000, when either the expected number of trade partners or total country trade is kept fixed and equal to observed quantities. We show that, in the binary WTW, node-degree sequences are sufficient to explain higher-order network properties such as disassortativity and clustering-degree correlation, especially in the last part of the sample. Conversely, in the weighted WTW, the observed sequence of total country imports and exports are not sufficient to predict higher-order patterns of the WTW. We discuss some important implications of these findings for international-trade models. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 8 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/economic+theory/journal/11403|
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Glenn Ellison & Edward L. Glaeser, 1994.
"Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Dartboard Approach,"
NBER Working Papers
4840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ellison, Glenn & Glaeser, Edward L, 1997. "Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Dartboard Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 889-927, October.
- Ellison, G. & Glaeser, E.L., 1994. "Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Dartboard Approach," Working papers 94-27, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Fagiolo, Giorgio & Reyes, Javier & Schiavo, Stefano, 2008.
"On the topological properties of the world trade web: A weighted network analysis,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3868-3873.
- Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2007. "On the Topological Properties of the World Trade Web: A Weighted Network Analysis," Papers 0708.4359, arXiv.org.
- Armenter, Roc & Koren, Miklós, 2010.
"A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7783, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008.
"Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487, 05.
- Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Scholarly Articles 3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," NBER Working Papers 12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2008. "Assessing The Evolution Of International Economic Integration Using Random Walk Betweenness Centrality: The Cases Of East Asia And Latin America," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 685-702.
- Sanjeev Goyal, 2007.
"Introduction to Connections: An Introduction to the Economics of Networks
[Connections: An Introduction to the Economics of Networks]," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
- Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1998.
98-33, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Barigozzi, Matteo & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Mangioni, Giuseppe, 2011.
"Identifying the community structure of the international-trade multi-network,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2051-2066.
- Matteo Barigozzi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Giuseppe Mangioni, 2010. "Identifying the Community Structure of the International-Trade Multi Network," LEM Papers Series 2010/15, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Rysman, Marc & Greenstein, Shane, 2005. "Testing for agglomeration and dispersion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 405-411, March.
- Raja Kali & Fabio Mendez & Javier Reyes, 2007. "Trade structure and economic growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 245-269.
- Caldarelli, Guido, 2007. "Scale-Free Networks: Complex Webs in Nature and Technology," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199211517, March.
- Matteo Barigozzi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Diego Garlaschelli, 2009. "Multinetwork of international trade: A commodity-specific analysis," Papers 0908.1879, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
- Bargigli, Leonardo & Gallegati, Mauro, 2011. "Random digraphs with given expected degree sequences: A model for economic networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 396-411, May.
- Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2008.
"The World-Trade Web: Topological Properties, Dynamics, and Evolution,"
Sciences Po publications
2008/16, Sciences Po.
- Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "The World-Trade Web: Topological Properties, Dynamics, and Evolution," LEM Papers Series 2008/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 159-164, 05.
- Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012.
"Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
- Stefano Battiston & Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2009. "Liaisons Dangereuses: Increasing Connectivity, Risk Sharing, and Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 15611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Garlaschelli, Diego & Loffredo, Maria I., 2005. "Structure and evolution of the world trade network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 138-144.
- Giorgio Fagiolo, 2009.
"The International-Trade Network: Gravity Equations and Topological Properties,"
LEM Papers Series
2009/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Giorgio Fagiolo, 2010. "The international-trade network: gravity equations and topological properties," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, June.
- Giorgio Fagiolo, 2009. "The International-Trade Network: Gravity Equations and Topological Properties," Papers 0908.2086, arXiv.org.
- Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2009.
"The World Trade Network,"
51-2009, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Mar 2009.
- D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," Papers physics/0701030, arXiv.org.
- Giorgio Fagiolo, 2006. "Directed or Undirected? A New Index to Check for Directionality of Relations in Socio-Economic Networks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(34), pages 1-12.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:75-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.