IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pcp/pucwps/wp00454.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Capacidad productiva, cambio técnico y productividad: Estimaciones alternativas del producto de largo plazo

Author

Listed:
  • Félix Jiménez

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

Esta investigación presenta las estimaciones del producto de largo plazo y de la brecha del producto, correspondientes a dos enfoques teóricos. El primero es el enfoque del crecimiento dirigido por la demanda. Se estiman dos modelos de producción de largo plazo. El modelo de Shaikh y Moudud (2004) con una ligera modificación para captar el cambio técnico determinado por la demanda en el sentido Kaldoriano (Kaldor, 1957); y, el modelo de Thirlwall (1979) según el cual las tasas teóricas de crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía están determinadas, en el largo plazo, por las tasas de crecimiento de las exportaciones. El segundo enfoque es el neoclásico de Solow-Swan (1956). Este enfoque sostiene que el crecimiento de largo plazo está limitado por factores de oferta y, entre estos se encuentran ciertamente los factores de producción capital y trabajo. Se utiliza la misma técnica de cointegración para estimar los modelos de ambos enfoques para de este modo facilitar su comparación. JEL Classification-JEL: E12 , E13 , E23 , O11 , O40 , O47 , O49 Keywords: Crecimiento económico , Productividad , Producto de largo plazo , Producto potencial , Rendimiento a Escalas Constante

Suggested Citation

  • Félix Jiménez, 2018. "Capacidad productiva, cambio técnico y productividad: Estimaciones alternativas del producto de largo plazo," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-454, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00454
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0454
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://doi.org/10.18800/2079-8474.0454
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18800/2079-8474.0454?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Byrne, Joseph P. & Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Structural breaks in the real exchange rate and real interest rate relationship," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 138-151.
    2. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2002. "Thirlwall’s Law and Uneven Development," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 367-390, March.
    3. Robert F. Martin & Teyanna Munyan & Beth Anne Wilson, 2014. "Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?," IFDP Notes 2014-11-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    5. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    6. Adolfo Figueroa, 2017. "Economics of the Anthropocene Age," Libros no PUCP / Books other publishers, Otras editoriales / Other publishers, edition 1, number otr-2017-07, February.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    9. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    10. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    11. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1998. "On Capital Flows and The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, December.
    12. repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Anwar M. Shaikh & Jamee K. Moudud, 2004. "Measuring Capacity Utilization in OECD Countries: A Cointegration Method," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_415, Levy Economics Institute.
    14. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8.
    15. Solow, Robert M, 1988. "Growth Theory and After," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 307-317, June.
    16. Pierre St-Amant & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
    17. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    18. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2012. "Structural Breaks, Cointegration and the Demand for Money in Greece," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 5-21, July.
    19. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    20. Benan ERES, 2011. "Alternative Measures of Rate of Capacity Utilization for the Turkish Economy: A Comparative Analysis in Means of Adequacy for Empirical Investigation and Growth Models," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 16(16).
    21. Jane Haltmaier, 2012. "Do recessions affect potential output?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Jose Antonio Alonso, 1999. "Growth and the external constraint: lessons from the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 245-253.
    23. José A. Alonso & Carlos Garcimartín, 1998. "A New Approach to Balance-of-Payments Constraint: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 259-282, December.
    24. Adriana Moreira Amado & Marwil Dávila-Fernández, 2016. "Conciliating Prebisch-Singer And Thirlwall: An Assessment Of The Dynamics Of Terms-Of-Trade In A Bopc Growth Model," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 075, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    25. Mohammed Al- Mahish, 2017. "Does Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model Hold in Saudi Arabia?," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, March.
    26. Iván Rivera (ed.), 2017. "Principios de Macroeconomía. Un enfoque de sentido común," Libros PUCP / PUCP Books, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, edition 1, number lde-2017-04.
    27. Guadalupe Fugarolas Alvarez-Ude & David Matesanz Gomez, 2008. "Long- and short-run balance of payments adjustment: Argentine economic growth constrained," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 815-820.
    28. Mario D. Tello, 2017. "La Productividad Total de Factores Agregada en el Perú. Nacional y Departamental," Libros no PUCP / Books other publishers, Otras editoriales / Other publishers, edition 1, number otr-2017-06, February.
    29. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 433-494.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cecilia Garavito, 2018. "Mercado de trabajo doméstico en los inicios de la República: 1876 – 1940," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-455, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    2. Arnold Rivasplata R. & Raúl García C., 2018. "Dinámica de inversión y competencia en generación eléctrica en un escenario de liberalización en el Perú: La importancia de los contratos de largo plazo," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-457, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    3. José Carlos Orihuela & Victor Gamarra Echenique, 2018. "Variegated dependence: The geographically differentiated economic outcomes of resource-based development in Peru, 2001-2015," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-458, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    3. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    4. Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Ramezan Hosseinzadeh, 2011. "Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence of Thirlwall’s Law in Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 2(2), pages 81-88.
    5. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    6. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    7. Sebastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2022. "The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 100-129, January.
    8. Charles O. Manasseh & Timothy E. Mathew & Jonathan E. Ogbuabor, 2017. "Investigating the Nexus between Institutional Quality and Stock Market Development in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 272-292, June.
    9. Vidal Alejandro, Pavel & Fundora Fernández, Annia, 2008. "Trade-growth relationship in Cuba: estimation using the Kalman filter," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    10. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    11. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2022. "Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to the goods and labour markets," MERIT Working Papers 2022-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    12. Luciano Nakabashi, 2010. "Thirlwall ou Solow? Uma análise para a economia brasileira entre 1947 e 2008," Working Papers 0110, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    13. J.-C. Moreno-Brid, 1998. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(207), pages 413-433.
    14. Woocheol Lee, 2021. "Structural Change, Balance of Payments Constraint, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 631-653, December.
    15. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Ioannis Kostakis, 2018. "The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-236, March.
    16. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid & Lorenzo Nalin & Edgar Perez-Medina, 2023. "Current External Challenges to the Economic Expansion of Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series inetwp201, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    17. Magazzino, Cosimo & Drago, Carlo & Schneider, Nicolas, 2023. "Evidence of supply security and sustainability challenges in Nigeria’s power sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo, 2013. "Cumulative causation in a structural economic dynamic approach to economic growth and uneven development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 130-140.
    19. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2001. "The balance-of-payments constraint:from balanced trade to sustainable debt," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 381-400.
    20. Gustavo Britto & João Prates Romero, 2011. "Modelos kaldorianos de crescimento e suas extensões contemporâneas," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 449, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, revised Jul 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    crecimiento económico ; productividad ; producto de largo plazo ; producto potencial ; rendimiento a escalas constante;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00454. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depucpe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.