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Do recessions affect potential output?

  • Jane Haltmaier
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    A number of previous studies have looked at the effect of financial crises on actual output several years beyond the crisis. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the growth of potential output also is affected by recessions, whether or not they include financial crises. Trend per capita output growth is calculated using HP filters, and average growth is compared for the two years preceding a recession, the two years immediately following a recession peak, and the two years after that. Panel regressions are run to determine whether characteristics of recessions, including depth, length, extent to which they are synchronized across countries, and whether or not they include a financial crisis, can explain the cumulative four-year loss in the level of potential output following an output peak preceding a recession. The main result is that the depth of a recession has a significant effect on the loss of potential for advanced countries, while the length is important for emerging markets. These results imply that the Great Recession might have resulted in declines in trend output growth averaging about 3 percent for the advanced economies, but appear to have had little effect on emerging market trend growth.

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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2012/1066/default.htm
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2012/1066/ifdp1066.pdf
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    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 1066.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1066
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    1. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
    2. Abdul Abiad & Petya Koeva Brooks & Irina Tytell & Daniel Leigh & Ravi Balakrishnan, 2009. "What’S the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 09/245, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Park, Cyn-Young & Majuca, Ruperto & Yap, Josef, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 45, Asian Development Bank.
    4. Charles Steindel, 2009. "Implications of the financial crisis for potential growth: past, present, and future," Staff Reports 408, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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