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Growth rates constrained by internal and external imbalances: a demand orientated approach

Author

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  • Elias Soukiazis

    (Faculdade de Economia/GEMF, Universidade de Coimbra)

  • Pedro Cerqueira

    (Faculdade de Economia/GEMF, Universidade de Coimbra)

  • Micaela Antunes

    (Faculdade de Economia/GEMF, Universidade de Coimbra)

Abstract

Thirlwall’s Law considers that growth can be constrained by the balance-of-payments when the current account is in permanent deficit. The Law focuses on external imbalances as impediments to growth and does not consider the case where internal imbalances (budget deficits or public debt) can also constrain growth. The recent European public debt crisis shows that when internal imbalances are out of control they can constrain growth and domestic demand in a severe way. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap by developing a growth model in line with Thirlwall’s Law that takes into account both internal and external imbalances. The model is tested for Portugal that recently fell into a public debt crisis with serious negative consequences on growth. The empirical analysis shows that the growth rate in Portugal is in fact balance-of-payments constrained and the main drawback is the high import elasticity of the components of demand and in particular that of exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2011. "Growth rates constrained by internal and external imbalances: a demand orientated approach," GEMF Working Papers 2011-12, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2011-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    2. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1998. "On Capital Flows and The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, December.
    3. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    4. Micaela Antunes & Elias Soukiazis, 2009. "How well the balance-of- payments constraint approach explains the Portuguese growth performance: empirical evidence for the 1965-2008 period," GEMF Working Papers 2009-13, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    5. Penélope López & A. Thirlwall, 2006. "Trade liberalization, the income elasticity of demand for imports, and growth in Latin America," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 41-61.
    6. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2001. "The balance-of-payments constraint:from balanced trade to sustainable debt," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 381-400.
    7. A. P. Thirlwall, 2007. "Regional Problems are "Balance-of-Payments" Problems," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(sup1), pages 89-95.
    8. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8, December.
    9. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    10. A. P. Thirlwall, 1982. "The Harrod Trade Multiplier And The Importance Of Export-Led Growth," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21.
    11. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Torój, Andrzej & Bednarek, Elżbieta & Bęza-Bojanowska, Joanna & Osińska, Joanna & Waćko, Katarzyna & Witkowski, Dariusz, 2012. "EMU: the (post-)crisis perspective. Literature survey and implications for the euro-candidates," MF Working Papers 12, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 06 Mar 2012.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    internal and external imbalances; import elasticities of the components of demand; equilibrium growth rates; 3SLS system regressions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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