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The Balance-of-payments Constraint: From Balanced Trade to Sustainable Debt

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Abstract

This paper extends the balance-of-payments constraint on growth known as Thirlwall's law to incorporate unbalanced trade and debt accumulation. Assuming that small open economies face a liquidity constraint, the text shows the growth and real-exchange-rate policy rules consistent with a stable ratio of net exports to income. Given such rules, the text shows how the trade balance of a small open economy is residually determined by the ratio of foreign debt to income allowed by international conditions.

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  • Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2002. "The Balance-of-payments Constraint: From Balanced Trade to Sustainable Debt," SCEPA working paper series. 2001-06, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    • Handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:2001-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
    2. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    3. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1998. "On Capital Flows and The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, December.
    4. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: 1964-1997," Research Department Publications 3065, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8, December.
    6. Alexander, R. & King, A., 1998. "Growth and the Balance-of-Payment Constraint," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 622, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1999. "Finance and changing trade patterns in Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 354, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    8. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    9. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2001. "International Liquidity and Growth in Brazil," SCEPA working paper series. 2001-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    10. Calcagno, Alfredo Fernando & Sáinz, Pedro, 1999. "La economía brasileña ante el Plan Real y su crisis," Series Históricas 7482, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance of payments constraint; trade; debt; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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