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Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth in Brazil

  • Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior


This paper applies Thirlwall’s basic balance-of-payments constraint model to Brazilian economic growth in the period 1955-98, using cointegration technique. According to Thirlwall (1979) and MacCombie and Thirlwall (1994) the dynamic Harrod foreign multiplier, that is, demand-induced economic growth, determines long-term economic growth. The results show that there is a positive cointegration between growth in exports and long-term economic growth in Brazil which conclusion supports Thirlwall’s model.

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Paper provided by Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in its series Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG with number td155.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Revista de Economia Política, 2003, vol. 23, no. 1.
Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td155
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  1. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1989. "Comparative Advantage and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 2809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, January.
  3. Taylor, Lance, 1994. "Gap models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 17-34, October.
  4. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, June.
  5. Canuto, Otaviano & Holland, Márcio & Xavier, Clésio, 1998. "Taxas de Câmbio, Elasticidades-renda e Saldo Comercial na Economia Brasileira," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 52(2), April.
  6. Paul Krugman, 1988. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ann Harrison & Gordon Hanson, 1999. "Who Gains from Trade Reform? Some Remaining Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 6915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Harrison, Ann, 1991. "Openness and growth : a time series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 809, The World Bank.
  9. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Trade Policy, Exchange Rates, and Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Reform, Recovery, and Growth: Latin America and the Middle East, pages 13-52 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Anwar Shaikh, 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and the International Mobility of Capital," Macroeconomics 9904002, EconWPA.
  11. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
  12. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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