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Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth in Brazil

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  • Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior

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Abstract

This paper applies Thirlwall’s basic balance-of-payments constraint model to Brazilian economic growth in the period 1955-98, using cointegration technique. According to Thirlwall (1979) and MacCombie and Thirlwall (1994) the dynamic Harrod foreign multiplier, that is, demand-induced economic growth, determines long-term economic growth. The results show that there is a positive cointegration between growth in exports and long-term economic growth in Brazil which conclusion supports Thirlwall’s model.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior, 2001. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth in Brazil," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td155, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td155
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    File URL: http://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20155.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, January.
    2. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Comparative Advantage and Long-run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 796-815, September.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Trade Policy, Exchange Rates, and Growth," NBER Chapters,in: Reform, Recovery, and Growth: Latin America and the Middle East, pages 13-52 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
    5. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    6. Anwar Shaikh, 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and the International Mobility of Capital," Macroeconomics 9904002, EconWPA.
    7. Canuto, Otaviano & Holland, Márcio & Xavier, Clésio, 1998. "Taxas de Câmbio, Elasticidades-renda e Saldo Comercial na Economia Brasileira," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 52(2), April.
    8. Harrison, Ann & Hanson, Gordon, 1999. "Who gains from trade reform? Some remaining puzzles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 125-154, June.
    9. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
    10. Taylor, Lance, 1994. "Gap models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 17-34, October.
    11. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sérgio Filho & Frederico Jayme & Gilberto Libânio, 2013. "Balance-of-payments constrained growth: a post Keynesian model with capital inflows," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 373-398.
    2. Adriana Moreira Amado & Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Frederico G. Jayme Jr., 2006. "Economic growth cycles in Latin America and developing countries," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td297, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    3. Luciano Ferreira Gabriel & Fabrício Missio, 2016. "Sistema Nacional De Inovação Em Um Modelo Com Restrição Externa," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 083, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Luciano Nakabashi, 2010. "Thirlwall ou Solow? Uma análise para a economia brasileira entre 1947 e 2008," Working Papers 0110, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    5. Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Jr, 2001. "Notes on trade and growth," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td166, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    6. Jayme Jr., Frederico G. & Prates Romero, João & Silveira, Fabrício, 2011. "Brazil: structural change and balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    7. Maria Carolina Basso, 2016. "A Economia Brasileira Sob Restrição Do Balanço De Pagamentos: Uma Análise Empírica Da Lei De Thirlwall No Boom Das Commodities," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 089, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Adriana Moreira Amado & Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Frederico G. Jayme Jr., 2007. "Growth Cycles In Latin America And Developed Countries," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Sérgio Filho & Frederico Jayme & Gilberto Libânio, 2013. "Balance-of-payments constrained growth: a post Keynesian model with capital inflows," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 373-398.
    10. Luciano Nakabashi & Marcelo Luiz Curado & João Basílio Pereima Neto, 2008. "Os efeitos do câmbio no crescimento da economia brasileira," Working Papers 0074, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    11. Oliveira, Francisco H.P. & Jayme, Frederico Jr. & Lemos, Mauro B., 2006. "Increasing returns to scale and international diffusion of technology: An empirical study for Brazil (1976-2000)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Thirlwall’s model; Brazil; balance-of-payments;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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