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Growth, Exchange Rates and Trade in Brazil: a Structuralist Post Keynesian Approach

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  • Nelson Henrique Barbosa Filho

    (Min. Planej. e UFRJ)

Abstract

This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP) constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nelson Henrique Barbosa Filho, 2003. "Growth, Exchange Rates and Trade in Brazil: a Structuralist Post Keynesian Approach," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] c42, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2003:c42
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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2003/artigos/C42.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004, Enero-Abr.
    2. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    3. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1998. "On Capital Flows and The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, December.
    4. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    5. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8, August.
    6. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2001. "International Liquidity and Growth in Brazil," SCEPA working paper series. 2001-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    7. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477, Enero-Abr.
    8. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luciano Nakabashi, 2010. "Thirlwall ou Solow? Uma análise para a economia brasileira entre 1947 e 2008," Working Papers 0110, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    2. Luciano Nakabashi & Marcelo Luiz Curado & João Basílio Pereima Neto, 2008. "Os efeitos do câmbio no crescimento da economia brasileira," Working Papers 0074, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    3. Botta, Alberto, 2009. "A structuralist North-South model on structural change, economic growth and catching-up," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 61-73, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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