IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/anp/en2003/c42.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth, Exchange Rates and Trade in Brazil: a Structuralist Post Keynesian Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Nelson Henrique Barbosa Filho

    (Min. Planej. e UFRJ)

Abstract

This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP) constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson Henrique Barbosa Filho, 2003. "Growth, Exchange Rates and Trade in Brazil: a Structuralist Post Keynesian Approach," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] c42, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2003:c42
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2003/artigos/C42.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    2. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004.
    3. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477.
    4. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1998. "On Capital Flows and The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, December.
    5. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8, November.
    6. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    7. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 283-298, January.
    8. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2001. "International Liquidity and Growth in Brazil," SCEPA working paper series. 2001-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luciano Nakabashi, 2010. "Thirlwall ou Solow? Uma análise para a economia brasileira entre 1947 e 2008," Working Papers 0110, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    2. Luciano Nakabashi & Marcelo Luiz Curado & João Basílio Pereima Neto, 2008. "Os efeitos do câmbio no crescimento da economia brasileira," Working Papers 0074, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    3. Botta, Alberto, 2009. "A structuralist North-South model on structural change, economic growth and catching-up," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 61-73, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2001. "The balance-of-payments constraint:from balanced trade to sustainable debt," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 381-400.
    2. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    3. Vidal Alejandro, Pavel & Fundora Fernández, Annia, 2008. "Trade-growth relationship in Cuba: estimation using the Kalman filter," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    4. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro André Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2012. "Growth Rates Constrained by Internal and External Imbalances: A Demand-Orientated Approach," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 5, pages 144-167, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Luciano Nakabashi, 2010. "Thirlwall ou Solow? Uma análise para a economia brasileira entre 1947 e 2008," Working Papers 0110, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    6. Luciano Nakabashi & Marcelo Luiz Curado & João Basílio Pereima Neto, 2008. "Os efeitos do câmbio no crescimento da economia brasileira," Working Papers 0074, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    7. Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Ramezan Hosseinzadeh, 2011. "Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence of Thirlwall’s Law in Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 2(2), pages 81-88.
    8. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "Growth rates constrained by internal and external imbalances and the role of relative prices: empirical evidence from Portugal," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 275-298.
    9. Elias Soukiazis & Pedre André Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "The Effects of Internal and External Imbalances on Italy´s Economic Growth. A Balance of Payments Approach with Relative Prices No Neutral," GEMF Working Papers 2013-14, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    10. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    11. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2012. "Causes of the Decline of Economic Growth in Italy and the Responsibility of EURO. A Balance-of-Payments Approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    12. Gustavo Britto & João Prates Romero, 2011. "Modelos kaldorianos de crescimento e suas extensões contemporâneas," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 449, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, revised Jul 2013.
    13. Elias Soukiazis & Eva Muchova, 2012. "Slovak economic growth and the consistency of the balance-of-payments constraint approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-16, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    14. Raphael Rocha Gouvea & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 169-204, October.
    15. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Raphael Rocha Gouvêa & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2013. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in a multisectoral framework: A panel data investigation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(2), pages 240-254, May.
    17. Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Jr., 2003. "Balance-of-payments-constrained economic growth in Brazil," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 23(1), pages 63-86.
    18. Irfan Civcir & M. Emir Yücel, 2020. "Effects of Internal and External Imbalances and the Role of Relative Prices on Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    19. Félix Jiménez, 2018. "Capacidad productiva, cambio técnico y productividad: Estimaciones alternativas del producto de largo plazo," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-454, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    20. A.P. Thirlwall, 2018. "Una vita nell’economia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 71(283), pages 179-210.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:en2003:c42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/anpecea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Zadra Armond (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/anpecea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.