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International Liquidity and Growth in Brazil



This paper analyzes the relation between international liquidity and growth for Brazil in 1966-2000. Defining the former as the ratio of foreign reserves to foreign (interest-bearing) debt, the objective is to build a model connecting growth with international liquidity, and then check whether the results from such a model hold up in practice. The model builds upon Thirlwall's (1979) law and uses some basic accounting identities to specify a liquidity constraint on small open economies. The main implication of such a model is that, similar to what happens with liquidity constrained agents in closed economies, small open economies tend to adjust their current account, especially their trade balance, to the availability of external finance. Thus, in face of fluctuations in international liquidity, one should expect fluctuations in growth after a time lag. This is exactly what the paper verifies for Brazil in 1966-2000, that is, changes in Brazil's international liquidity tends to lead changes in its growth rate. Overall, inertia and international liquidity explains approximately 40% of the variation in Brazil's growth rate in 1966-2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2001. "International Liquidity and Growth in Brazil," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2001-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
  • Handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:2001-04

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    2. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2000. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 11-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    4. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    5. Kurz,Heinz D. & Salvadori,Neri, 1997. "Theory of Production," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521588676, March.
    6. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2001. "The balance-of-payments constraint:from balanced trade to sustainable debt," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 381-400.
    2. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2004. "Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post-Keynesian approach," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 14(2), pages 59-86, May-Augus.
    3. Ricardo Adrogué & Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2010. "Brazil's long-term growth performance: trying to explain the puzzle," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 356-376, September.

    More about this item


    international liquidity; liquidity constraint; growth; Brazil;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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