Mondialisation, mobilité du capital et volatilité macro-économique

This paper offers an examination of the impact of globalisation on macroeconomic volatility in Western countries using a two-good, two-country stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model. These countries differ mainly in the proportions of skilled and unskilled workers that they possess. Globalisation is experienced through a growth in the share of countries with many unskilled workers in the trade of Western countries. Two sources of stochastic disturbances are considered in turn: sectoral shocks common to two regions and regional shocks common to sectors. The findings suggest that, whatever the nature of the shocks, trade between structurally similar countries is less destabilising for the North than interregional trade such as that between North and South. If the shocks are sectoral, the North's comprehensive specialisation increases volatility yet further ? a phenomenon less pronounced in the case of regional shocks.