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A globally consistent framework for reliability-based trade statistics reconciliation in the presence of an entrepôt

  • Wang, Zhi
  • Gehlhar, Mark
  • Yao, Shunli
Registered author(s):

    This paper develops a mathematical programming model to reconcile trade statistics subject to a set of global consistency conditions in the presence of an entrepôt. Initial data reliability serves a key function for governing the magnitude of adjustment. Through a two-stage optimization procedure, the adjusted trade statistics are achieved as solutions to a system of simultaneous equations that minimize a quadratic penalty function. As an empirical illustration, the model is applied to reconcile the 2004 trade statistics reported by China, Hong Kong and their major trading partners, initialized with detailed estimates of bilateral trade flows, re-export markups, cif/fob ratios and data reliability indexes.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W46-4Y0D67W-1/2/c78d63a720d01cf4fe38322670db8272
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 161-189

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:21:y:2010:i:1:p:161-189
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco

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    1. Gordon H. Hanson & Robert C. Feenstra, 2001. "Intermediaries in Entrepot Trade: Hong Kong Re-Exports of Chinese Goods," NBER Working Papers 8088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. K. C. Fung, 1998. "Accounting for Chinese Trade: Some National and Regional Considerations," NBER Chapters, in: Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting, pages 173-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    4. Robert C. Feenstra & Wen Hai & Wing T. Woo & Shunli Yao, 1998. "The US-China Bilateral Trade Balance: Its Size and Determinants," NBER Working Papers 6598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Discrepancies in International Data: An Application to China-Hong Kong Entrepot Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 338-343, May.
    6. John W. Schindler & Dustin H. Beckett, 2005. "Adjusting Chinese bilateral trade data: how big is China's trade surplus," International Finance Discussion Papers 831, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Gehlhar, Mark, 1996. "Reconciling Bilateral Trade Data for Use in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 313, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    8. K.C. Fung & LawrenceJ. Lau & Yanyan Xiong, 2006. "Adjusted Estimates Of United States-China Bilateral Trade Balances: An Update," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 299-314, October.
    9. Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-49, August.
    10. Weale, Martin, 1985. "Testing Linear Hypotheses on National Account Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 685-89, November.
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