The US-China Bilateral Trade Balance: Its Size and Determinants
This paper has two aims. The first is to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies. The second is to identify the determinants of the bilateral trade deficit and offer an assessment of their relative importance. We calculate a smaller range of values for the bilateral trade deficit than in previous studies, due to a new estimation method that takes advantage of our access to detailed Chinese Customs data at the commodity level. For example, the revised US-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995, compared to the official range of $8 billion to $30 billion, and $9 billion to $34 billion, respectively. The widening of the US-CHINA bilateral trade deficit in recent years reflected many factors. In our opinion, the two chief factors are (i) macroeconomic forces in the US and China moving in opposite direction, causing their respective overall trade balance to move in opposite directions; and (ii) the accelerated relocation of production of US imports from East Asia to China.
|Date of creation:||Jun 1998|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- K. C. Fung, 1998.
"Accounting for Chinese Trade: Some National and Regional Considerations,"
NBER Chapters,in: Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting, pages 173-204
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- K.C. Fung, 1996. "Accounting for Chinese Trade: Some National and Regional Considerations," NBER Working Papers 5595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Liu, Liang-Yn & Woo, Wing Thye, 1994. "Saving Behaviour under Imperfect Financial Markets and the Current Account Consequences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 512-527, May.
- Liu, L.Y. & Woo, W.T., 1992. "Saving Behaviour Under Imperfect Financial Markets and the Current Account Consequences," Papers 413, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
- Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
- Sheffrin, S.M. & Woo, W.T., 1989. "Present Value Tests Of An Intertemporal Model Of The Current Account," Papers 61, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6598. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.