The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance: It'S Size And Determinants
This paper has two aims. The first is to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies. The second is to identify the determinants of the bilateral trade deficit, and offer an assessment of their relative importance. We calculate a smaller range of values for the bilateral trade deficit than in previous studies, due to a new estimation method that takes advantage of our access to detailed Chinese Customs data at the commodity level. For example, the revised U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995, compared to the official range of $8 billion to $30 billion, and $9 billion to $34 billion, respectively. The widening of the U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit in recent years reflected many factors. In our opinion, the two chief factors are (i) macroeconomic forces in the U.S. and China moving in opposite directions, causing their respective overall trade balance to move in opposite directions; and (ii) the accelerated relocation of production of U.S. imports from East Asia to China.
|Date of creation:||09 Jan 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616-8578|
Phone: (530) 752-0741
Fax: (530) 752-9382
Web page: http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- K. C. Fung, 1998.
"Accounting for Chinese Trade: Some National and Regional Considerations,"
NBER Chapters,in: Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting, pages 173-204
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- K.C. Fung, 1996. "Accounting for Chinese Trade: Some National and Regional Considerations," NBER Working Papers 5595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Liu, Liang-Yn & Woo, Wing Thye, 1994. "Saving Behaviour under Imperfect Financial Markets and the Current Account Consequences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 512-527, May.
- Liu, L.Y. & Woo, W.T., 1992. "Saving Behaviour Under Imperfect Financial Markets and the Current Account Consequences," Papers 413, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
- Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
- Sheffrin, S.M. & Woo, W.T., 1989. "Present Value Tests Of An Intertemporal Model Of The Current Account," Papers 61, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:98-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Scott Dyer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.