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A Globally Consistent Framework for Reliability-based Trade Statistics Reconciliation in the Presence of an Entrepôt

  • Zhi Wang

    (China Center for Economic Research)

  • Mark Gehlhar
  • Shunli Yao
Registered author(s):

    This paper develops a mathematicla programming model to reconcile trade statistics subject to a set of global consistency conditions in the presence of an entrepot. Initial data reliability serves a key function for governing the magnitude of adjustment. Through a two-stage optimization procedure, the adjusted trade statistics are achived as solutions to a system of simultaneous equations that minimize a quadratic penalty function. As an empirical illustration, the model is applied to reconcile the 2004 trade statistics reported by China, Hong Kong, and their major trading partners, initialized with detailed estimates of bilateral trade flows, re-export markups, cif/fob ratios and data reliability indexes.

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    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22715
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    Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Trade Working Papers with number 22715.

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    Date of creation: Jan 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:22715
    Contact details of provider: Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
    Web page: http://www.eaber.org

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    1. Weale, Martin, 1985. "Testing Linear Hypotheses on National Account Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 685-89, November.
    2. Gehlhar, Mark, 1996. "Reconciling Bilateral Trade Data for Use in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 313, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Wen Hai & Wing T. Woo & Shunli Yao, . "The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance: It'S Size And Determinants," Department of Economics 98-09, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    4. K.C. Fung & LawrenceJ. Lau & Yanyan Xiong, 2006. "Adjusted Estimates Of United States-China Bilateral Trade Balances: An Update," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 299-314, October.
    5. Wang, Zhi & Gehlhar, Mark & Yao, Shunli, 2007. "Reconciling Trade Statistics from China, Hong Kong and Their Major Trading Partners--A Mathematical Programming Approach," GTAP Technical Papers 2517, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. K.C. Fung, 1996. "Accounting for Chinese Trade: Some National and Regional Considerations," NBER Working Papers 5595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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