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Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?

Author

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  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma

    (University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury(Great Britain))

  • Anthony P. Thirlwall

    (University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury(Great Britain))

Abstract

In mainstream growth theory, including endogenous growth theory, the naturalrate of growth as defined by Harrod, is still treated as exogenous. In practice, however, both the growth of the labour force and the growth of labour productivity are endogenous to demand. This has theoretical implications for the adjustment process between the actual, warranted and natural growth rates. It also has serious implications for the way in which the growth process is viewed: whether from the supply side or demand side. It is shown for a sample of 15 OECD countries 1961-1995 that the natural rate of growth has been very responsive to the actual growth rate, and it is argued that for most countries demand constraints operate long before supply capacity is reached.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2000. "Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(215), pages 433-445.
  • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:2000:43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2001. "On the theory of interest rate policy," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 355-380.
    2. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 213-245.
    3. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Stephanie Seguino & Mark Setterfield, 2010. "Gender Equality and the Sustainability of Steady State Growth Paths," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 18, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth in the regions of Italy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 533-552.
    6. Soumya Datta, 2016. "Macrodynamics of debt-financed investment-led growth with interest rate rules," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 593-624, October.
    7. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Perche' la produttivita' degli investimenti varia tra paesi? (Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 70(279), pages 197-231.
    8. Luciano Boggio & Gilberto Seravalli, 2002. "Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?A comment," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 219-227.
    9. Datta, Soumya, 2013. "Convergence, cycles and complex dynamics of financing investment," MPRA Paper 52111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2013.
    10. Molerés-Regalado, Estefanía. & Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio., 2013. "On Harrod’s Natural Rate of Growth and the Role of Demand: an Empirical Assessment," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(16), pages 29-49, primer se.
    11. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    12. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2022. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: Estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," MERIT Working Papers 2022-013, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Setterfield, Mark & Gouri Suresh, Shyam, 2016. "Multi-agent systems as a tool for analyzing path-dependent macrodynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 25-37.
    14. Gabriel Porcile & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Real exchange rate and elasticity of labour supply in a balance-of-payments-constrained macrodynamics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(6), pages 1019-1039.
    15. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The Endogenous Nature of the ‘Natural’ Rate of Growth," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2004. "A Simple Model Of Demand-Led Growth And Income Distribution," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 038, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    17. Fortuno-Hernández, Josefa Carolina. & Landa-Díaz, Heri Óscar., 2014. "Gasto público, inversión y crecimiento en México , 1980-2014," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(19), pages 33-52, segundo s.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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