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The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth in the Regions of Italy

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  • Matteo Lanzafame

Abstract

Following León-Ledesma and Thirlwall (2002a), this paper investigates the extent to which the natural rate of growth of the Italian regions is endogenous, in the sense that it is affected by actual growth. The estimation framework is based on one version of the cyclical relationship between unemployment and output growth known as Okun's Law [Okun (1962)]. Econometrically, the main hypothesis being examined regards the presence of non-linearities in Okun's Law, which can be interpreted as structural shifts in the natural growth rate. Using annual data over the period 1977-2003, we find strong support for the endogeneity hypothesis when applying the theory-based estimation methodology proposed by LLT. The results are less clear-cut when we switch to a data-driven approach centred on the Hansen's (1997) testing procedure for threshold models. Furthermore, in line with recent findings in the literature, our analysis provides evidence of asymmetries in Okun's Law, suggesting that unemployment turns from counter-cyclical when growth is slow to acyclical or even (in some cases) pro-cyclical in booms.

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  • Matteo Lanzafame, 2006. "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth in the Regions of Italy," Studies in Economics 0606, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0606
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    Cited by:

    1. Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2017. "On The Interaction Between Economic Growth And Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 982-1022, June.
    2. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2017. "Is Potential Output Growth Falling?," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2017_03, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    3. Ignacio Perrotini-Hernandez & Juan Alberto Vazquez-Munoz, 2017. "Endogenous growth and economic capacity: Theory and empirical evidence for the NAFTA countries," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 247-282.
    4. Ottorino Morresi, 2017. "How much is CEO education worth to a firm? Evidence from European firms," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 311-353.
    5. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 281-290.
    6. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    7. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    8. Matteo Lanzafame, 2016. "Potential Growth in Asia and Its Determinants: An Empirical Investigation," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(2), pages 1-27, September.
    9. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The Endogenous Nature of the ‘Natural’ Rate of Growth," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Senay, Acikgöz & Mert, Merter, 2015. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An alternative approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General

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