The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth in the regions of Italy
Following Leon-Ledesma and Thirlwall (2002a), this paper examines the hypothesis that the natural rate of growth of the Italian regions is endogenous to and positively affected by the actual growth rate. Relying on fixed-effects and SUR estimation techniques and using annual data for the 20 Italian regions over the period 1977-2003, we find strong support for the endogeneity hypothesis suggesting that faster actual growth raises the natural rate of growth of the average Italian region by about 3-3.7 percentage points. Furthermore, in line with recent findings in the literature, our analysis provides evidence of asymmetries in Okun's Law. In particular, the asymmetric Okun coefficient in the high-growth regime turns out to be positive in several cases, implying the unemployment rate may become pro-cyclical when actual growth rises above a certain threshold rate.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 24 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CIRA20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro, 1989.
"Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1999.
"Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "PANELTHRESH: RATS procedure to analyze up to two threshold breaks in a fixed effects panel model," Statistical Software Components RTS00152, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's example of threshold break in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTZ00088, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Perron, P., 1994.
"Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables,"
Cahiers de recherche
9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2000.
"Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?,"
BNL Quarterly Review,
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(215), pages 433-445.
- Miguel Leon-Ledesma & A.P. Thirlwall, 2007. "Is the Natural Rate of Growth Exogenous?," Chapters, in: Economic Growth, chapter 4 Edward Elgar.
- Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2000. "Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(215), pages 433-445.
- Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January.
- Miguel A. León-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 1998.
"The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth,"
Studies in Economics
9821, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:24:y:2010:i:5:p:533-552. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.