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Explaining growth rate differences in highly indebted countries: an extension to Thirlwall and Hussain

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  • Dawn Richards Elliott
  • Rupert Rhodd

Abstract

In recent years, growth rate differences have increased and have elicited numerous explanations. Among the most controversial interpretations is that postulated by Thirlwall (1979) and later extended by Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), both papers arguing that growth rate differences are best explained by demand constraints found in the balance of payments. Although the inclusion of capital flows by Thirlwall and Hussain (1982) is widely viewed as an improvement in the original model, still we believe the model to be less than complete because it omitted the effect of debt servicing. Extending the model to include the effect of debt servicing, this paper improves the predictability of the original model as it brought the actual growth rates closer to the predicted growth rates for most of the countries used in the previous research.

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  • Dawn Richards Elliott & Rupert Rhodd, 1999. "Explaining growth rate differences in highly indebted countries: an extension to Thirlwall and Hussain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1145-1148.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:9:p:1145-1148
    DOI: 10.1080/000368499323634
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    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
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    1. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Parikh, Ashok & Stirbu, Corneliu, 2004. "Relationship between Trade Liberalisation, Economic Growth and Trade Balance: An Econometric Investigation," HWWA Discussion Papers 282, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    3. Thilak Ranaweera, 2004. "Ghost of the financing gap: an overlooked aspect of the aid debate," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 637-652.
    4. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    5. Eduardo Loría, 2001. "La restricción externa dinámica al crecimiento de México a través de las propensiones del comercio, 1970-1999," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 16(2), pages 227-251.
    6. Nureldin Hussain & Bernard Gunter, 2005. "Working Paper 75 - External Shocks and the HIPC Initiative: Impacts on Growth and Poverty in Africa," Working Paper Series 210, African Development Bank.
    7. Emmanuel, Igbinoba, 2017. "Balance of Payments Constrained Economic Growth in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 5(2), July.
    8. Parikh, Ashok & Stirbu, Corneliu, 2004. "Relationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Economic Growth and Trade Balance: An Econometric Investigation," Discussion Paper Series 26267, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    9. Luciano Ferreira Gabriel & Fabrício Missio, 2016. "Sistema Nacional De Inovação Em Um Modelo Com Restrição Externa," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 083, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    10. AfDB AfDB, 2005. "Working Paper 75 - External Shocks and the HIPC Initiative: Impacts on Growth and Poverty in Africa," Working Paper Series 2289, African Development Bank.
    11. Gökçe, Atilla & Çankal, Erhan, 2013. "Balance-of-payments constrained growth model for the Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 140-144.
    12. Arevilca Vasquez, Bismarck Javier & Risso Charquero, Adrian Winston, 2007. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: Evidence for Bolivia 1953-2002," MPRA Paper 5685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Ramezan Hosseinzadeh, 2011. "Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence of Thirlwall’s Law in Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 2(2), pages 81-88.
    14. Irfan Civcir & M. Emir Yücel, 2020. "Effects of Internal and External Imbalances and the Role of Relative Prices on Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    15. Riera Prunera, Maria Carmen, 2000. "A Role For Deficit In Economic Growth," ERSA conference papers ersa00p335, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    17. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    18. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2016. "La Ley de Thirlwall y el Output Gap en España," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2016-04, october-d.
    19. AfDB AfDB, 2005. "Working Paper 75 - External Shocks and the HIPC Initiative: Impacts on Growth and Poverty in Africa," Working Paper Series 2209, African Development Bank.
    20. Epaphra, Manamba & Amin, Jennifer, 2022. "The relationship between Trade Liberalization, Growth and Balance of Payments in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(4), September.
    21. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2007. "On the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Constraints to the Real Side of the Economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 43-54.

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