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La Ley de Thirlwall y el Output Gap en España

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  • José Francisco Bellod Redondo

Abstract

en este trabajo analizamos la posibilidad de aplicar la Ley de Thirlwall para la estimación del output gap en la economía española, así como sus ventajas frente a otros métodos, especialmente el método estructural basado en la función de producción Cobb – Douglas y la NAIRU. Según la Ley de Thirlwall el crecimiento potencial de un país viene dado por la tasa de crecimiento de sus exportaciones, ya que éstas le proveen de demanda agregada y recursos financieros para sostener su crecimiento. Según nuestro estudio, la aplicación de la Ley de Thirlwall permite datar los ciclos económicos con resultados análogos a los de otros métodos, posee unas propiedades estadísticas similares a las de otros métodos y su implementación es más sencilla que mediante la función Cobb – Douglas.

Suggested Citation

  • José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2016. "La Ley de Thirlwall y el Output Gap en España," Contribuciones a la Economía, Grupo Eumed.net (Universidad de Málaga), issue 2016-04, october-d.
  • Handle: RePEc:erv:contri:y:2015:i:2016-04:08
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    File URL: http://eumed.net/ce/2016/4/thirlwall.html
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    References listed on IDEAS

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