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Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach

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  • Andrew Rennison

Abstract

The author evaluates the ability of a variety of output-gap estimators to accurately measure the output gap in a model economy. A small estimated model of the Canadian economy is used to generate artificial data. Using output and inflation data generated by this model, the author uses each output-gap estimation methodology to construct an estimate of the true output gap. He then evaluates the methodologies by comparing their respective estimates of the output gap with the true gap. The estimators are evaluated on the basis of correlations between the actual and estimated output gap, as well as the root-mean-squared estimation error. The author also varies the properties of potential output and the output gap in the data-generating process to test the robustness of his results. His findings indicate that an estimator that combines the Hodrick-Prescott filter with a Blanchard-Quah structural vector autoregression (SVAR) yields an estimate that is accurate compared with competing methods at the end-of-sample. He also finds that the performance of the SVAR relative to that of other methodologies is quite robust to violations in the identifying assumptions of the SVAR.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Rennison, 2003. "Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach," Staff Working Papers 03-8, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mahmood-ul-Hasan Khan, 2008. "Short Run Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Monetary Policy: Interpreting Macroeconomic Dynamics in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 4, pages 1-30.
    2. Jérôme Creel & Maurizio Iacopetta, 2015. "Macroeconomic policy and potential growth," Sciences Po publications 2015-15, Sciences Po.
    3. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Staff Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.
    4. René Lalonde & Nicolas Parent, 2006. "The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States," Staff Working Papers 06-11, Bank of Canada.
    5. Charles St-Arnaud, 2004. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni," Staff Working Papers 04-46, Bank of Canada.
    6. repec:erv:contri:y:2015:i:2016-04:08 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. David E. Giles & Chad N. Stroomer, 2004. "Identifying the Cycle of a Macroeconomic Time-Series Using Fuzzy Filtering," Econometrics Working Papers 0406, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    8. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Hélène Baudchon & Jérôme Creel & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Eloi Laurent & Jacques Le Cacheux & Patrick Musso & Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Gilles , 2005. "Potential Growth in the EU : Prospects from Technical Progress and Eastern Enlargment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2500, Sciences Po.
    9. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova & Michael Alexeev, 2016. "Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rates," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 167P, pages 123-123.
    10. David Dupuis, 2004. "The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve: An Assessment of Competing Specifications for the United States," Staff Working Papers 04-31, Bank of Canada.
    11. Adolfo L.Cobo, 2005. "Output Gap in Colombia: An Eclectic Approach," Borradores de Economia 327, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Adolfo Cobo, 2005. "Output Gap In Colombia: An Eclectic Approach," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003310, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods; Potential output;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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