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Using Additional Information in Estimating the Output Gap in Peru: a Multivariate Unobserved Component Approach

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  • Luis Gonzalo Llosa

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Shirley Miller

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

One of the key elements for inflation targeting regime is the right identification of inflationary or disinflationary pressures through the output gap. In this paper we provide an estimation of the Peruvian output gap using a multivariate unobserved component (MUC) model, relying on an explicit short run relation between the output gap and inflation rate (Phillips Curve) and structural restrictions over output dynamics. The results show that the MUC output gap estimate is less sensible to end of sample problems and exhibits closer dynamics with the inflation process than the standard output gap estimates
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using Additional Information in Estimating the Output Gap in Peru: a Multivariate Unobserved Component Approach," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 57-82, January-J.
    • Handle: RePEc:cml:moneya:v:xvii:y:2004:i:1:p:57-82
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    Cited by:

    1. Aguirre, John & Arrieta, Johar & Castillo, Luis E. & Florián, David & Ledesma, Alan & Martinez, Jefferson & Morales, Valeria & Vélez, Amilcar, 2023. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral: Una Actualización Hasta 2019," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 42, pages 9-58.
    2. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Fijación de metas inflacionarias en una economía dolarizada: la experiencia de Perú," Research Department Publications 4424, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Armas, Adrián & Grippa, Francisco, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1925, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
    5. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2008. "Metas de inflación en una economía dolarizada: La experiencia del Perú," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 10(1), pages 7-44, December.
    6. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," Research Department Publications 4423, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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