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A New Technique for Simultaneous Estimation of the Output Gap and Phillips Curve

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  • Yasuo Hirose

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Koichiro Kamada

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

A new technique to estimate simultaneously the potential output and Phillips curve is demonstrated. Here we define the potential output as the non-accelerating-inflation level of output (NLO). The NLO is not a mere trend of the actual output, but rather is a critical level of output with the following property: If the actual output is at this level, the inflation rate is neither accelerated nor decelerated. Applying our method to the data on the G7 countries, we estimate the NLO and Phillips curves and investigate their properties. It is shown that during the 1980s and 1990s, the output gap measured from the NLO was negative on average, reflecting the worldwide trend of disinflation. We also point out that the output gap has moved in accordance with corporate sentiments, and thus serves as an indicator of business conditions. In Japan, however, after the potential rate of growth dropped between 1 and 2 percent in the mid-1990s, the output gap was too volatile to allow for accurate evaluation. As for Phillips curves, a cross-country comparison shows that Japan's responsiveness of inflation to the output gap is relatively weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuo Hirose & Koichiro Kamada, 2001. "A New Technique for Simultaneous Estimation of the Output Gap and Phillips Curve," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:01-e-7r
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2007. "Is there a direct effect of money?: Money's role in an estimated monetary business cycle model of the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 329-337, August.
    3. Luis Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using Additional Information in Estimating the Output Gap in Peru: a Multivariate Unobserved Component Approach," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 57-82, January-J.
    4. Research and Statistics Department, 2003. "The Output Gap and the Potential Growth Rate:Issues and Applications as an Indicator for the Pressure on Price Change," Bank of Japan Research Papers 2003-05-09, Bank of Japan.
    5. Yasuo Hirose & Koichiro Kamada, 2002. "Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Growth in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    6. Fujiwara, Ippei & Hara, Naoko & Hirose, Yasuo & Teranishi, Yuki, 2005. "The Japanese Economic Model (JEM)," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(2), pages 61-142, May.
    7. Koichiro Kamada & Naohisa Hirakata, 2002. "Import Penetration and Consumer Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    8. Adriana Arreaza & Enid Blanco & Miguel Dorta, 2004. "A Small Scale Macroeconomic Model for Venezuela," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 25-38, January-J.
    9. Wayne Robinson, 2004. "Real Shocks, Credibility & Stabilization Policy in a Small Open Economy," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 39-55, January-J.
    10. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Makoto Saito, 2003. "On Alternatives to Aggressive Demand Policies to Revitalize the Japanese Economy," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 87-126.
    11. Vladimir Bragin & Vladimir Osakovsky, 2005. "Estimation of the Natural Unemployment Rate in the Russian Federation, 1994-2004," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 33-46.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential output; Phillips curve; Hodrick-Prescott filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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