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Inflation-adjusted potential output

  • Jane T. Haltmaier
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    This paper estimates potential output for seven countries using a multivariate version of the Hodrick-Prescott filter in which observations on inflation are used to help separate trend from cyclical movements in output. The potential series are estimated first on an aggregate basis, and then by disaggregating output into three major components: labor productivity, the employment-population ratio, and population. Potential levels of productivity and the employment-population ratios are calculated using the multivariate filter and combined with actual population to derive an alternative, "disaggregated" estimate of potential. The method is then applied to forecasting potential growth.

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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1996/561/default.htm
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1996/561/ifdp561.pdf
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    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 561.

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    Date of creation: 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:561
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    Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/

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    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
    2. Adams, Charles & Coe, David T., 1989. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," MPRA Paper 8622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
    5. P Clark & D Laxton, 1997. "Phillips Curves," CEP Discussion Papers dp0344, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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