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Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches

Author

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  • Syed Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari

    (Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi)

  • Safdar Ullah Khan

    (Bond University, Queensland, Australia.)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate potential output vis-à-vis output gap for Pakistan’s economy. This paper reviews six commonly used techniques to estimate potential output and from that the output gap. The results suggest that while measures of output gap are not identical they nonetheless do show some degree of association among each other. Therefore, a composite output gap is calculated for 1950 to 2007. The composite output gap depicts that Pakistan economy has been observing a cyclical episode of periods of excess supply followed by excess demand in the period of analysis. Furthermore, evidence suggests that Pakistan economy is currently experiencing rising demand pressures since FY05. These demand pressures show a high degree of correlation with the rising inflation as shown in the temporal correlation between inflation and composite of output gap measures. Length: 33 pages

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Working Paper Series 24, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:24
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    Cited by:

    1. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir & Muhammad Shahbaz & Muhammad Zeshan, 2014. "Renewable and Nonrenewable Energy Consumption, Real GDP and CO2 Emissions Nexus: A Structural VAR Approach in Pakistan," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 2(3), pages 91-105, September.
    3. Malik, M. Fahad & Awan, Dr Masood Sarwar & Malik, Dr Waseem Shahid, 2020. "Macroeconomic Shocks: Short-Run versus Long-Run Perspectives," MPRA Paper 99103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 43-78.
    5. Ahsan ul Haq Satti & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2017. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 193-219.
    6. Maya Panorama, 2017. "Effect of Monetary Aspects on the Performance of Islamic Banks in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 76-85.
    7. Abhilash Nair & Vinod R, 2015. "Determinants of allocative, scale and scope efficiencies of Indian banks," Working papers 177, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gross domestic product; potential output; output gap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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