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Measures of potential output: an application to Israel

Author

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  • Fabio Scacciavillani
  • Phillip Swagel

Abstract

This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift towards a slower growth path after the dramatic developments associated with the years of heavy immigration. Israel poses a challenge because traditional methods of measuring potential output assume relatively stable conditions over an extended period of time. Five methodologies are employed to derive estimates and it is found that four of the measures imply the slowdown stems largely from reduced growth of potential output rather than a cyclical slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Scacciavillani & Phillip Swagel, 2002. "Measures of potential output: an application to Israel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 945-957.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:8:p:945-957
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840110069174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric V. Clifton, 1998. "The Decline of Traditional Sectors in Israel; The Role of the Exchange Rate and the Minimum Wage," IMF Working Papers 98/167, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaromír Hurník & David Navrátil, 2005. "Potential Output in the Czech Republic: A Production Function Approach," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(3), pages 253-266.
    2. Jorge Iván RODRIGUEZ MUÑOZ & Juan Ricardo PERILLA JIMENEZ & José Daniel REYES PEÑA, 2004. "Cálculo del PIB Potencial en Colombia.:1970-2003," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 002078, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    3. Charlotte DU Toit & Elna Moolman, 2003. "Estimating Potential Output And Capacity Utilisation For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 71(1), pages 96-118, March.
    4. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
    5. Andreas Billmeier, 2006. "Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 69-83, Autumn.
    6. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting; Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Montenegro; 2010 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro," IMF Staff Country Reports 10/155, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Angel J. Ubide & Kevin Ross, 2001. "Mind the Gap; What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 01/203, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Angelica E. Njuguna & Stephen N. Karingi & Mwangi S. Kimenyi, 2005. "Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya," Working papers 2005-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    11. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Vadas, 2003. "Univariate Potential Output Estimations for Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2003/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    12. Moisa Altar & Ciprian Necula & Gabriel Bobeica, 2009. "A Robust Assessment of the Romanian Business Cycle," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 28, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    13. Jaromír Hurník & Dana Hájková, 2007. "Supply-Side Performance in the Czech Republic: A Macroeconomic View (1995-2005)," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2007(4), pages 319-335.
    14. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    15. Moisa, Altar & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy. An Eclectic Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-25, September.
    16. Dana Hájková & Jaromír Hurník, 2007. "Cobb-Douglas Production Function: The Case of a Converging Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(9-10), pages 465-476, October.
    17. S. Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 4, pages 31-60.
    18. Aaron G. Grech, "undated". "Investigating potential output using the Hodrick-Prescott filter: an application for Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2014, Central Bank of Malta.
    19. Hogrefe, Jan & Sachs, Andreas, 2014. "Unemployment and labor reallocation in Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-083, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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