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Using additional information in estimating output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach

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  • Gonzalo Llosa/Shirley Miller

Abstract

One of the key inputs for inflation targeting regime is the right identification of inflationary or disinflationary pressures. These pressures are usually approximated by the output gap. In this paper we provide an estimation of the Peruvian output gap using a multivariate unobserved component (MUC) model, relying on an explicit short term relation between output gap an inflation rate (Phillips Curve) and structural restrictions over output stochastic dynamics. The estimation is carried out via Kalman Filter technique. The results show that MUC output gap estimate is less sensible to end of sample problems and exhibits more relation with the Peruvian inflation process than other estimates, calculated with the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the production function approach. Furthermore, the diagnostic statistics report that MUC estimate increases out-sample predictive power for inflation. All these features make MUC output gap more reliable than other alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalo Llosa/Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using additional information in estimating output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:243
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    Cited by:

    1. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Fijación de metas inflacionarias en una economía dolarizada: la experiencia de Perú," Research Department Publications 4424, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1925, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
    4. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2008. "Metas de inflación en una economía dolarizada: La experiencia del Perú," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 10(1), pages 7-44, December.
    5. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," Research Department Publications 4423, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output gap; Inflation; unobserved component model;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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