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La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada

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  • Jean-Philippe Cayen
  • Simon van Norden

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:02-10
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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp02-10.pdf
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    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
    2. Lalonde, René & Page, Jennifer & St-Amant, Pierre, 1998. "Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne," Staff Working Papers 98-21, Bank of Canada.
    3. Robert Amano & Don Coletti & Tiff Macklem, 1998. "Monetary rules when economic behaviour changes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    5. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
    6. Armour, J. & Engert, W. & Fung, B.S.C., 1996. "Overnight Rate Innovations as a measure of monetary Policy Shocks in Vector Autoregressions," Staff Working Papers 96-4, Bank of Canada.
    7. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin L Hunt, 2000. "Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 00/158, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    9. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    10. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
    11. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    12. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    13. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    14. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 4-20.
    15. Eric T. Swanson, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April.
    17. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July.
    19. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    20. Yetman, James, 2003. "Probing potential output: Monetary policy, credibility, and optimal learning under uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-330, September.
    21. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    22. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    23. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
    24. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    25. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Should Monetary Policy Respond Strongly to Output Gaps?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 258-262, May.
    26. Kichian, Maral, 1999. "Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework," Staff Working Papers 99-9, Bank of Canada.
    27. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    28. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
    29. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    30. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
    31. Stephen Murchison, "undated". "NAOMI A New Quarterly Forecasting Model, Part 1: Proposed Model Selection," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2001-19, Department of Finance Canada.
    32. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    33. Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 180, Society for Computational Economics.
    34. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
    35. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Staff Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada.
    36. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap; An Application to Sweden," IMF Working Papers 00/59, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
    2. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Staff Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
    3. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2004. "An estimation of the Euro Area potential output with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Working Papers hal-00972840, HAL.
    4. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    5. Charles St-Arnaud, 2004. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni," Staff Working Papers 04-46, Bank of Canada.
    6. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2002. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel américain," Staff Working Papers 02-36, Bank of Canada.
    7. Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis, 2006. "Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003," MPRA Paper 552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Andrew Rennison, 2003. "Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach," Staff Working Papers 03-8, Bank of Canada.
    9. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2006. "An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 951-975, November.
    10. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
    11. Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 344, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Ali Dib, 2002. "Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy in Canada Since 1981," Staff Working Papers 02-25, Bank of Canada.
    13. Hashmat Khan & Zhenhua Zhu, 2002. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom," Staff Working Papers 02-19, Bank of Canada.
    14. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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