Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?
The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts. The authors show that the response of inflation to output-gap or real exchange rate shocks varies considerably across the components, although the average response remains low; they also show that the average response has decreased over time. To forecast monthly inflation, the use of disaggregate data is a significant improvement over the use of aggregate data. However, the improvements in forecasts of quarterly rates of inflation are only minor. Overall, it remains difficult to properly model and forecast monthly core inflation in Canada.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada|
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tobias, Justin & Zellner, Arnold, 2000.
"A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance,"
Staff General Research Papers
12024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 2004. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers 12371, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Stoker, Thomas M, 1993. "Empirical Approaches to the Problem of Aggregation Over Individuals," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1827-74, December.
- Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2004.
"Does "Aggregation Bias" Explain the PPP Puzzle?,"
NBER Working Papers
10304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, .
"Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information,"
201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Todd E. Clark, 1996. "Finite-sample properties of tests for forecast equivalence," Research Working Paper 96-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Marwan Chacra, 2002. "Oil-Price Shocks and Retail Energy Prices in Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-38, Bank of Canada.
- Hashem Pesaran, M., 2003. "Aggregation of linear dynamic models: an application to life-cycle consumption models under habit formation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 383-415, March.
- Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2003. "Sticky prices and monetary policy shocks," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-9.
- Sasaki, Komei, 1978. "An empirical analysis of linear aggregation problems : The case of investment behavior in Japanese firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 313-331, April.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004.
"Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
- Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
- Maral Kichian, 2001. "On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve," Staff Working Papers 01-4, Bank of Canada.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Perron, Pierre, 1991.
"Test Consistency with Varying Sampling Frequency,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 341-368, September.
- Perron, P., 1989. "Test Consistency With Varying Sampling Frequency," Papers 345, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1987. "Test Consistency with Varying Sampling Frequency," Cahiers de recherche 8752, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Fuchun Li & Greg Tkacz, 2001. "Evaluating Linear and Non-Linear Time-Varying Forecast-Combination Methods," Staff Working Papers 01-12, Bank of Canada.
- Rose, David E., 1977. "Forecasting aggregates of independent Arima processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 323-345, May.
- Todd E. Clark, 2003.
"Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 03-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2004. "Periodic Time Series Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199242030, May.
- Allan W. Gregory & Jonathan J. Reeves, 2010. "Estimation and Inference in ARCH Models in the Presence of Outliers," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 8(4), pages 547-549, Fall.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Clive W.J. Granger, 2002.
"Aggregation of Space-Time Processes,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
582, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W.J., 2001. "Aggregationn of Space-Time Processes," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt77f76455, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Jean-François Fillion & André Léonard, 1997. "La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses," Staff Working Papers 97-3, Bank of Canada.
- Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, March.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Carol Corrado & Mark Greene, 1984. "Reducing uncertainty in short-term projections: linkage of monthly and quarterly models," Special Studies Papers 207, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Staff Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:3:p:341-68 is not listed on IDEAS
- Knox Lovell, C. A., 1973. "A note on aggregation bias and loss," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 301-311, October.
- Frédérick Demers & David Dupuis, 2005. "Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information," Staff Working Papers 05-31, Bank of Canada.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.