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La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses

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  • Jean-François Fillion
  • André Léonard

Abstract

This study, which draws on a variety of research on price dynamics in Canada, examines some hypotheses that might explain the poor quality of recent inflation forecasts based on the conventional Phillips curve. Among the various explanations we consider for the persistent underestimation of inflation, the one that emerges most clearly from our findings is that the process by which inflation expectations are formed has changed in recent years. Shifts in expectations appear to have been influenced by monetary policy developments. To take account of this factor, we estimate a Phillips curve that incorporates four autoregressive regimes based on the results of a Markov-switching model. We find that when regimes are introduced, the Phillips curve produces accurate forecasts for inflation since 1991.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Fillion & André Léonard, 1997. "La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses," Staff Working Papers 97-3, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:97-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Doug Hostland, "undated". "CHANGES IN THE INFLATION PROCESS IN CANADA: Evidence and Implications," Staff Working Papers 95-5, Bank of Canada.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    3. Douglas Laxton & Peter B. Clark & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus; Issues and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/76, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Staff Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Staff Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
    3. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín, 2002. "La Inflación En Colombia: Una Aproximación Desde Las Redes Neuronales," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, June.
    4. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2000. "An Estimation of the Nonlinear Philips Curve in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001975, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Staff Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
    7. Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 1998. "Un examen empírico de la curva de Phillips en Colombia," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 17(34), pages 39-87, Diciembre.
    8. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Staff Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada.
    9. Kichian, Maral, 1999. "Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework," Staff Working Papers 99-9, Bank of Canada.
    10. David Amirault & Brian O'Reilly, 2001. "The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: How Important Is It?," Staff Working Papers 01-6, Bank of Canada.
    11. Pierre St-Amant & David Tessier, 2000. "Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à l'impact des cibles d'inflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(3), pages 295-310, September.
    12. Pierre Fortin & George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2002. "Inflation and Unemployment in the U.S. and Canada: A Common Framework," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 20-16, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques.
    13. Marc-André Gosselin & Greg Tkacz, 2001. "Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada," Staff Working Papers 01-18, Bank of Canada.
    14. James Yetman, 2001. "Gaining Credibility for Inflation Targets," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 34, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Perrier, Patrick, 1998. "Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada," Staff Working Papers 98-12, Bank of Canada.
    16. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    17. Dupasquier, Chantal & Ricketts, Nicholas, 1998. "Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada," Staff Working Papers 98-14, Bank of Canada.
    18. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Staff Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.
    19. Seamus, Hogan & Pichette, Lise, 2000. "Some Explorations, Using Canadian Data, of the S-Variable in Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (1996)," Staff Working Papers 00-6, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation and prices; Inflation targets;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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